Group D is one of the most intriguing draws of the entire tournament — not because of a dominant favourite, but because of the genuine uncertainty running through all four positions. One of the three host nations anchors the group with home advantage and growing expectations. South America's most underrated defensive machine returns after 16 years away. Australia, as always, are the most resourceful team in the room without a single superstar. And Turkey arrive with arguably the most exciting young duo at the entire World Cup. All four teams believe they can advance. That alone makes for a compelling watch.
Group D Teams
USA
The host with the most to prove
The United States are hosting the World Cup for the second time, having previously staged the 1994 edition — which remains one of the best-attended tournaments in history. Their best-ever result came way back in 1930, when they finished third in Uruguay. More recently, the USMNT reached the round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, losing to the Netherlands (1-3) after a dramatic late comeback against Iran secured their passage from the group.
The Americans qualified automatically as co-hosts alongside Canada and Mexico. That has given the programme additional preparation time — and significant pressure. Playing at home, in front of enormous crowds, the United States will be expected to not only advance from this group but go deep into the knockout rounds.
Style and key players
The squad is built around young Europeans who have earned their places at major clubs in the top five leagues. The projected starting lineup follows a 4-3-3 with a high press and direct attacking play.
Christian Pulisic (AC Milan) — the captain and emotional leader. The most technically complete American player of his generation, capable of creating or scoring from any position in the final third.
Folarin Balogun — the central striker whose physicality and movement in behind give the attack a completely different dimension. His finishing at club level demands respect from any defence.
Tim Weah — dynamic and direct on the right flank, another player with genuine European pedigree and the ability to punish teams in transition.
Weston McKennie — the engine in midfield, combining defensive discipline with late runs into the box. His work without the ball holds the structure together.
Tyler Adams — the midfield metronome. When fit, Adams sets the tempo, wins the ball and links defence to attack with quiet efficiency.
Giovanni Reyna — perhaps the most naturally gifted American footballer of his generation. Still working towards absolute consistency, but on his day capable of unlocking any defence.
Paraguay
South America's most dangerous secret
Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay. Who else qualifies as genuinely successful in South American football? The answer — overlooked by most — is Paraguay. In 2010, they reached the quarter-final of the World Cup. Now, after 16 years away, the Guarani return with one of the most miserly defensive records in recent qualification history and a tactical identity so clear it borders on philosophy.
A remarkable qualifying campaign
Paraguay conceded just 10 goals in 18 qualifying matches — only Ecuador were more defensively solid across the entire South American cycle. The Guarani drew goalless with Chile, Uruguay and Ecuador, holding dominant possession teams to near-nothing without ever trying to match them in terms of the ball. In several of those games, Paraguay held less than 35% possession — and left with a point regardless.
The decisive phase came at home. In front of their own supporters, Paraguay beat Uruguay (2-0), Chile (1-0), Argentina (2-1) and Brazil (1-0). Against the reigning world champions, they held just 29% of the ball. Against the five-time champions, 33%. None of it mattered — they held on, hit on the counter and collected the points. The country celebrated qualification with a national public holiday.
Style and key players
Head coach Gustavo Alfaro (63) has translated everything he learned from 15 Argentinian club jobs — including Boca Juniors, Rosario Central and San Lorenzo — and stints with Ecuador and Costa Rica into a defensive system of exceptional sophistication. Paraguay typically line up in a 4-4-2, which can morph into a 6-2-2 when the wingers drop deep to form a second defensive bank. Compact, aggressive, impossible to play through — and utterly calm under pressure for the full 90 minutes.
Miguel Almiron (32, currently in MLS) — the team's most productive attacker, with 9 goals in 73 appearances. Low by most standards, but remarkable for a squad this defensively oriented. He started the 2025 MLS season with a hat-trick of assists and arrives at the tournament with momentum.
Julio Enciso (22, Strasbourg) — the sleeping dragon of this squad. Versatile enough to play as a centre-forward or a number ten, he specialises in late goals — most of his strikes come after the 60th minute, catching opponents at their most fatigued and distracted.
Diego Gomez (Brighton) — the squad's most complete midfielder. Can play as a defensive midfielder, a box-to-box or a winger. Scored the goal that beat Brazil (1-0) in qualifying, assisted the winner against Argentina (2-1) and won Man of the Match against Peru (1-0). Quietly, he does everything.
Juan Jose Caceres (25, Dynamo Moscow) — the first-choice right-back, voted Man of the Match in the decisive goalless draw with Ecuador. Named in this squad as one of the two RPL representatives alongside Bolivia's contingent. Barely dropped below a 6.5 rating across the entire qualifying cycle.
Gustavo Alfaro — 63 years old, coaching since 1992. His career has been built on transforming modest resources into organised, difficult-to-beat teams. His greatest achievement before this appointment was winning the Sudamericana Cup with Arsenal de Sarandí. With Paraguay, he has delivered the country's first World Cup in 16 years.
Australia
Seven World Cups, zero superstars, maximum spirit
Australia occupy a uniquely uncomfortable place in football history: arguably the most administratively mistreated national team in the world. For decades they dominated Oceania, winning the OFC Nations Cup four times, only to be repeatedly denied a direct World Cup berth and then forced into intercontinental play-offs against South American opponents with far more preparation and competitive experience.
The results were painful — eliminated by Scotland (1986), Argentina (1994), Iran (1998) and Uruguay twice. The nadir came before the 2002 World Cup, when they went through their qualifying group with a 72-1 goal difference — including a 22-0 win over Tonga and a 31-0 demolition of American Samoa — then lost to Uruguay in the play-offs as though the previous matches had never happened.
Relief finally came in 2005, when the Asian Football Confederation invited Australia to switch confederations. Gus Hiddink took the last Oceanian cycle squad and immediately delivered a World Cup place — beating Uruguay in the decisive play-off (4-2 on penalties) — and then led the Socceroos to the round of 16 in Germany, where they gave Italy a genuine game before losing (0-1). Australia have not missed a World Cup since, and in Qatar 2022 reached the last 16 again before losing to eventual champions Argentina (1-2).
Qualifying for 2026
The second round was a formality — six wins, 22 goals, zero conceded against Lebanon, Bangladesh and Palestine. The third round proved more interesting. A shock opening defeat to Bahrain (0-1) was followed by an extended period of draws. Then a brilliant four-game winning streak at the end of the campaign — including results against Japan and Saudi Arabia — secured second place in the group with six points to spare.
Style and key players
Head coach Tony Popovic (52) — a former Socceroos player who won three OFC Nations Cup titles as a player and captained Crystal Palace in England — has been in management for 18 years. His Australia play honest, direct football: five at the back against stronger opposition, controlled chaos against equals, and shots from range as a tactical tool when the squad lacks the craft to break teams down elegantly.
Alessandro Circati (22, Parma) — the most valuable player in the squad. Could not break into Italy's youth ranks, chose Australia and has quickly become the defensive anchor. A knee ligament injury limited his minutes, but he is expected to start.
Mat Ryan (33, Levante, La Liga) — the most-capped active player in the squad. Not spectacular, but consistently effective — he made nine saves against Real Madrid in 2025-26. Exactly what Australia need between the posts.
Martin Boyle (32, Hibernian) — the third-highest scorer among active players (10 goals in 39 caps) and the team's most flexible attacker. Can play anywhere across the front line, brings energy and direct running that disrupts organised defences.
Turkey
The most exciting young duo at the tournament
Turkey were bronze medallists at the 2002 World Cup — a result so remarkable it still feels almost accidental — and have been absent from the tournament ever since. Qualifying failures, administrative scandals and periodic disciplinary chaos defined the years that followed. Then, almost imperceptibly, a new generation arrived.
24 years of waiting, then a fresh start
Turkey's 2002 campaign remains their finest hour. From the group stage with Brazil, Costa Rica and China, they advanced, beat Japan (1-0) in the round of 16, eliminated Senegal on a golden goal (1-0) in the quarters, lost the semi-final to Brazil and then beat South Korea (3-2) in a thrilling bronze match. The hero of that final game was Ilhan Mansiz, who scored a brace — and who, after retiring from football, went on to become a champion figure skater in pair skating.
The years that followed brought embarrassment: the infamous tunnel brawl against Switzerland in World Cup qualifying (2005), repeated qualification failures and the 2014 and 2018 cycles producing only fourth place in their respective groups. The bronze at Euro 2008 offered brief comfort. Only the emergence of the new generation at Euro 2024 — where Turkey reached the quarter-finals — signalled that the wait might finally be over.
Qualifying for 2026
Turkey's group featured Spain, Georgia and Bulgaria. The pecking order was clear from day one. Spain — untouchable at the top; Bulgaria — at the bottom. Everything came down to Turkey versus Georgia for second place. One result clarified the hierarchy: Spain beat Turkey 6-0 on Turkish soil. Turkey responded immediately, hammering Bulgaria 6-1, beating Georgia 4-1 at home and finishing the campaign with a composed 2-2 draw against Spain. They qualified for the play-offs 10 points clear of Georgia.
In the play-offs — both one-leg ties — Turkey beat Romania (1-0) and Kosovo (1-0) without conceding. Neither opponent created even one expected goal. Quiet, mature, controlled. Turkey arrive at their third World Cup looking nothing like the team of 2002, and everything like a side ready to make a deep run.
Style and key players
Head coach Vincenzo Montella (51) — who struggled to find his best self at Roma, Fiorentina, Milan and Sevilla — finally appears to have found his ideal environment in Turkey. He has built a system that channels the natural Turkish creativity through pragmatic Italian structure: patient possession, high pressing at the right moments and quick transitions rather than constant attacking chaos.
Arda Guler (21, Real Madrid) — the jewel of this generation. Already a key figure at one of the world's biggest clubs, Guler brings imagination and technical quality that is rare at any age and extraordinary for a 21-year-old. When Turkey are struggling, he is the man who can change a game with a single moment.
Kenan Yildiz (20, Juventus) — perhaps slightly under the radar compared to Guler, but arguably the more consistent performer at club level. Scored in both play-off wins and contributed a brace against Bulgaria. His intelligent movement without the ball — drawing defenders, creating space for teammates — is as valuable as his direct contributions.
Hakan Calhanoglu (32, Inter Milan) — the veteran anchor of the midfield with over 100 caps and 22 international goals. Montella has freed him from creative responsibility, allowing him to focus on balance, coverage and the occasional thunderous strike — like the one that settled a tight home game against Bulgaria (2-0).
Vincenzo Montella — reached the Euro 2024 quarter-final in only his first major tournament with this squad, losing narrowly to the Netherlands (1-2). Built the qualification campaign around collective discipline and individual brilliance in equal measure. Turkey's most important tactical decision has been letting Montella teach his players when not to attack.
Who Advances from Group D
|
Team |
Mostbet |
1xBet / Melbet / 22Bet |
1Win |
|
USA |
1.10 |
1.11 |
1.11 |
|
Turkey |
1.23 |
1.24 |
1.24 |
|
Paraguay |
1.50 |
1.48 |
1.50 |
|
Australia |
1.90 |
1.89 |
1.90 |
The USA at 1.10-1.11 are treated by the market as close to certainties to advance — home support, a genuinely strong squad and the easiest group game on paper against Australia. Turkey (1.23-1.24) are priced as near-certain qualifiers too, which reflects real respect for Guler, Yildiz and the defensive solidity they showed in the play-offs. The interesting story is Paraguay (1.48-1.50) — a team that beat Brazil and Argentina at home in qualifying, priced only fractionally behind Turkey. Those who watched their defensive performances in South America will not be surprised by the market's caution. Australia (1.89-1.90) are the outsiders, but an Australian team dismissed as outsiders has a habit of complicating things.
Who Wins Group D
|
Team |
Mostbet |
1xBet / Melbet / 22Bet |
1Win |
|
USA |
2.40 |
2.39 |
2.35 |
|
Turkey |
2.80 |
2.76 |
2.75 |
|
Paraguay |
4.70 |
4.70 |
4.75 |
|
Australia |
8.00 |
8.00 |
8.00 |
The USA (2.35-2.40) are slight favourites to top the group, but the market is remarkably tight at the top. Turkey (2.75-2.80) are only half a point behind, which tells you something important: bookmakers believe this group could be decided by the direct game between the hosts and the Turkish youngsters. Paraguay (4.70-4.75) at that price represent genuine value for anyone who has followed their qualifying campaign. A defensive team that beat every South American side at home — including the last two world champions — deserves more respect than fourth in Group D. Australia (8.00) — an accurate reflection of the gap in individual quality, even if the spirit is never in doubt.
Our Predictions
Group D will produce at least one result that surprises a wider audience — the only question is which one. The USA advance, almost certainly. The second spot is a genuine contest between Turkey and Paraguay, settled by whichever of the two handles the pressure of a knockout-feel game better. Turkey's quality in the final third and the genius of Guler and Yildiz gives them a narrow edge on paper, but Paraguay's defensive record — 10 goals conceded in 18 South American qualifying games — is not the kind of thing that evaporates simply because the group changes.
Australia will push whoever they face. They will not go quietly. They never have. And somewhere in this group, there will be a moment — a Gomez goal, a Guler dribble, a Ryan save — that reminds everyone why the World Cup is better with 48 teams.