Latvia — Serbia : Match Preview and Prediction for October 26,2025

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Match Forecast and Betting Odds

Expert Prediction Overview

According to bookmakers’ forecasts, the Serbian national team is considered the clear favorite for the upcoming match. The odds for an away win for Serbia are set at 1.33, a draw at 5.20, and a victory for Latvia at 11.00. This wide spread of coefficients reflects a significant difference in class and current potential between the two teams. The most rational bet appears to be a Serbia win (Away Win), considering the visitors’ strong motivation and the host team’s significant personnel problems. An alternative option is a “Both Teams to Score – No” bet with odds of 1.67, which is also supported by the statistics from recent matches of both national teams.

Tournament Standings and Motivation

Latvia’s Group Stage Performance

After three rounds, the Latvian national team currently occupies fourth place in Group K, having accumulated 4 points. Their campaign so far includes a 1-1 draw with Albania, a 1-0 victory over Andorra, and a 0-3 defeat against England.

Serbia’s Campaign Imperative

Serbia has played one match less but also has 4 points from a 0-0 draw with Albania and a win against Andorra. The tournament situation compels the Serbians to play for a win, as dropping points against lower-ranked opponents could significantly complicate their fight for a direct World Cup qualification spot. For Latvia, every point gained is already an achievement, but the team is objectively inferior in terms of player selection and squad depth.

Squad Status and Key Absences

Latvia’s Key Player Shortages

Latvia approaches this match with serious personnel losses: captain Tobers and key striker Uldriķis are both unavailable. This considerably reduces the team’s attacking potential, which already suffers from low goal-scoring efficiency (3 goals in their last 5 matches). Defensively, the Latvians are well-organized, favoring a 5-4-1 formation, but the absence of key leaders affects their stability and confidence.

Serbia’s Potential Striker Concerns

Serbia also faces some squad uncertainties: their main forward Aleksandar Mitrović has not featured in official matches since the game against Andorra, leaving his readiness for this encounter questionable. Nevertheless, even without Mitrović, the visitors possess enough skilled players to break down the opponent’s defense. Additional pressure on Serbia stems from a prolonged winless streak away from home, which has lasted over a year, but the match against Latvia presents an optimal opportunity to end this run.

Tactical Approaches

Latvia’s Defensive Strategy

Under the guidance of Paolo Nicolato, Latvia prioritizes defensive football, with an emphasis on quick counter-attacks and set pieces. Against mid-tier opponents, this tactic often yields results, but when facing teams with superior individual skill, the Latvians frequently find themselves under sustained pressure, leading to errors and conceded goals. In their last five matches, the team has conceded six goals while scoring only three.

Serbia’s Attacking Philosophy

Serbia prefers to control possession and utilize wide attacks, actively involving their full-backs. In Mitrović’s potential absence, the focus shifts towards collective attacking plays and long-range shots. The main challenge remains converting chances, as seen in their goalless draw with Albania, but against Latvia’s defense, Serbia is expected to find more space and opportunities to score.

Head-to-Head History

Dominance of Serbia in Past Encounters

In recent official matches, Serbia has consistently defeated Latvia, often by a margin of two or more goals. This trend underscores the significant difference in quality and Serbia’s psychological advantage. Latvia rarely scores against Serbia and typically loses at home with a clean sheet for the opponent.

Statistical Insights and xG Metrics

Advanced Analytics for Goal Expectancy

Based on advanced Expected Goals (xG) metrics, Latvia typically generates no more than 0.7 xG per match against opponents of Serbia’s caliber, whereas the Serbians consistently achieve 1.5–2.0 xG even in away fixtures. This statistical disparity suggests a high probability not only of a Serbia victory but also that they will keep a clean sheet.

Conclusion and Betting Recommendations

Final Betting Advice

Considering the tournament motivation, Latvia’s significant personnel absences, and the overall difference in team quality, the optimal bet is a straight win for Serbia (Away Win) at odds of 1.33. For those looking for higher returns, options like “Serbia to Win to Nil” or “Away Win + Under 3.5 Goals” could be considered, reflecting both the visitors’ attacking prowess and the hosts’ defensive tactics. A “Both Teams to Score – No” bet also appears justified, given Latvia’s low goal output and their current attacking problems without key players.

World Cup 2026 Qualifiers. Europe

History of confrontations

10.06.2025

Latvia

Albania

1 1

07.06.2025

Latvia

Azerbaijan

0 0

24.03.2025

England

Latvia

3 0

21.03.2025

Andorra

Latvia

0 1

17.11.2024

Latvia

Armenia

1 2

14.11.2024

North Macedonia

Latvia

1 0

10.06.2025

Serbia

Andorra

3 0

07.06.2025

Albania

Serbia

0 0

01.06.2025

Montenegro

Serbia

0 3

29.05.2025

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

0 5

28.05.2025

Serbia

Georgia

3 2

26.05.2025

Serbia

Ghana

2 1

Last matches Latvia vs Serbia

Latvia

10.06.2025

Latvia

Albania

1 1
07.06.2025

Latvia

Azerbaijan

0 0
24.03.2025

England

Latvia

3 0
21.03.2025

Andorra

Latvia

0 1
17.11.2024

Latvia

Armenia

1 2
14.11.2024

North Macedonia

1 0

Serbia

10.06.2025

Serbia

Andorra

3 0
07.06.2025

Albania

Serbia

0 0
01.06.2025

Montenegro

Serbia

0 3
29.05.2025

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

0 5
28.05.2025

Serbia

Georgia

3 2
26.05.2025

Serbia

Ghana

2 1

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Sports betting from our team of predictors

Mark Thompson

Mark Thompson, a London-based journalist with 15 years of experience, is renowned for his deep knowledge of sports betting. His passion for football and analytical mind enable him to create accurate match predictions. Thompson regularly publishes articles revealing the intricacies of bookmaking. His ability to interpret statistics and assess team form is highly valued by readers and fellow professionals alike.

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