Mainz05 — Rosenborg : Match Preview and Prediction for August 28,2025

Mainz’s Stuttering Start to the Season

Bo Henriksen’s squad has endured a challenging start to their campaign, with Mainz facing the very real prospect of being eliminated from European competition should they fail to reverse their first-leg deficit from Norway.

Late Concessions and Physical Condition

Adding to their woes, the Carnival Club’s Bundesliga campaign kicked off with a disappointing 0-1 home defeat against FC Köln, a result made more frustrating by conceding in the 90th minute. This late concession mirrors their 1-2 loss to Rosenborg, where they also conceded in the 90th minute, highlighting a potential vulnerability in the closing stages of matches and suggesting they may not be at peak physical conditioning yet.

Squad Changes and Offensive Concerns

While the core of the squad remained largely unchanged over the summer, the departure of key striker Jonathan Burkardt, replaced by Benedikt Hollerbach, has not yet yielded the desired impact. Their arduous performances from the season’s outset make backing the favourites – last season’s 6th-placed Bundesliga side – a risky proposition. They’ve shown signs of struggle, failing to secure a win by two or more goals in their three competitive matches so far, and a narrow 1-0 cup victory against Dynamo Dresden hardly inspires confidence. For the upcoming clash against Rosenborg, young talents Dahl and Gleiber, who are not central to Mainz’s current rotation, are expected to be unavailable.

Rosenborg’s Mid-Season Advantage

In stark contrast to their German counterparts, Rosenborg’s season is already well underway, a factor that likely contributed to Alfred Johansson’s side successfully overturning a 0-1 deficit against Mainz. The Trondheim outfit demonstrated clear superiority in terms of physical stamina and overall match sharpness, ultimately paving the way for their victory.

Impressive European Away Form and Offensive Prowess

This European campaign has seen the ‘Dark Blues’ maintain a perfect away record, securing two victories from two away fixtures by shrewdly adapting their approach. While their 2-0 win against Banga was a mere formality following a dominant 5-0 home leg, their crucial 1-0 triumph over Hammarby away from home, after a home draw, underscored their ability to perform under pressure on the road. The first leg against Mainz once again saw their prolific Montenegrin striker, Dino Islamovic, find the back of the net. Furthermore, Rosenborg’s offensive dominance was evident in their xG figures, outperforming the Germans with an impressive 2.57 to 0.41. The key now is for them to carry this formidable momentum into the return leg in Germany.