Match Overview

The fourth-round group stage match of the 2025/26 UEFA between Azerbaijani club Qarabag and English side Chelsea is scheduled for November 5 at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. This preview offers a detailed prediction, betting odds, and key statistics for the Qarabag vs. Chelsea encounter.

Qarabag Team Analysis

The Azerbaijani side, led by Gurban Gurbanov, experienced their first defeat in the current group stage during the third matchday. Playing away, Qarabag lost 1-3 to Athletic Club, despite taking an early lead in the first minute. Prior to this, they secured an impressive 3-2 away victory against Benfica and a solid 2-0 home win over Copenhagen. With 6 points, the club currently sits in 13th place, trailing the closest top-8 contender only on additional metrics.

Key Statistics for Qarabag

• Qarabag has emerged victorious in 7 of their last 9 matches in this tournament.
• At least three goals have been scored in 5 of the last 6 games involving the Azerbaijani team.
• Both teams have scored in 5 of Qarabag’s last 6 European matches.

Qarabag’s Predicted Starting Lineup (4-5-1)

Mateusz Kochalski – Bahlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Matheus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicallho, Marko Jankovic – Camilo Duran.

Chelsea Team Analysis

The English giants began their group stage campaign with an away defeat, losing 1-3 to Bayern Munich. However, they quickly rectified their form in the subsequent two rounds, both played at their home stadium. They first narrowly defeated Benfica 1-0, followed by a dominant 5-1 victory over Ajax. These results propelled them to 11th place in the tournament standings. Interestingly, Chelsea is just one goal shy of reaching 350 goals in the , a milestone they are likely to achieve in Baku, given their impressive record of scoring in their last 18 European fixtures.

Chelsea Key Statistics

• Chelsea’s competitive streak in this tournament spans 11 matches, featuring 7 wins and 4 losses.
• In 5 of Chelsea’s last 7 matches, only one team managed to score.
• The London club has suffered “to nil” defeats in their last 3 away European encounters.

Chelsea’s Predicted Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Robert Sanchez – Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Josh Achimpong, Marc Cucurella – Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo – Alejandro Garnacho, Marc Guiu, Pedro Neto – Joao Pedro Jesus.

Chelsea Team News

The team’s injury list includes defenders Levi Colwill, Benoit Badiashile, and Dariu Essugu, as well as midfielder Cole Palmer.

Match Official

The referee for this fixture is Sebastian Gishamer from Austria.

Referee Statistics

Referee Statistics (International Matches, 2024/25–2025/26):

• Matches Officiated: 14
• Yellow Cards Shown (including second yellows): 63
• Average Yellow Cards Per Match: 4.5
• Red Cards Shown: 5
• Average Fouls Per Match: 25
• Penalties Awarded: 14%

Match Prediction: Qarabag vs. Chelsea

These two teams previously met in the group stage during the 2017/18 season, where the English side comfortably defeated the Caucasian team in both fixtures (6-0 and 4-0). While another dominant victory for Chelsea is unlikely, I am confident that the visitors will secure all three points from Baku. Qarabag possesses a strong home record in this competition, though most of these successes were achieved in the qualifying rounds. It’s also worth noting that in their last 7 European encounters against Premier League opponents, Qarabag has consistently suffered defeats.

Chelsea is currently in excellent form. Over the weekend, they triumphed in a London derby against Tottenham, bringing them closer to the second position in their domestic league. Furthermore, the Blues have won an impressive 14 of their last 16 European matches, with only 2 losses. The disparity in league quality and squad depth between the two clubs significantly favors the English side. Therefore, my prediction is Chelsea with a (-1) handicap.