Match Preview: St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund

The highly anticipated first-round match of the Bundesliga season between St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund is set to take place on August 23 at the Millerntor Stadium in Hamburg. This analysis provides a comprehensive forecast, including betting odds and key statistics, for the clash between these two German sides.

St. Pauli: Team Analysis and Recent Form

Last season, St. Pauli successfully navigated a challenging campaign, securing their top-flight status in the German elite division. They finished 14th with 32 points, maintaining a three-point cushion above Heidenheim, who faced relegation playoffs. However, their form towards the end of the previous Bundesliga season was concerning, as they failed to secure a single victory in their final five matches (3 draws, 2 losses). Notably, St. Pauli also recorded the fewest goals in the entire league, with only 28 strikes. Their pre-season has been more encouraging, with the club playing seven friendly matches, suffering just one defeat (5 wins, 1 draw).

Squad Reinforcements and Departures for St. Pauli

During the off-season, St. Pauli strengthened their squad with the additions of defender Luis Oppie, midfielder Joel Chima Fujita, and forwards Andrea Untondji and Matias Pereira Laje. On the outgoing front, a key departure was defender Philipp Treu.

St. Pauli: Key Home Performance Statistics

• The club has failed to win in 7 of their last 8 home matches in the Bundesliga (3 draws, 4 losses).
• Exactly 1 or 2 goals were scored in eight previous home league encounters for the team.
• At least one team failed to score in 5 of St. Pauli’s last 7 home Bundesliga fixtures.

St. Pauli Predicted Starting XI (3-5-2)

Nikola Vasil – Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, David Nemeth – Manolis Saliakas, James Sands, Danel Sinani, Joel Chima Fujita, Luis Oppie – Andrea Untondji, Matias Pereira Laje.

St. Pauli: Injury Report

Midfielder Jackson Irvine and forward Ricky-Jade Jones will miss the upcoming match due to injuries.

Borussia Dortmund: Season Review and Current Form

Borussia Dortmund concluded the previous championship season in fourth place, a position secured by a formidable late surge, winning their final five league matches. This strong finish saw the club accumulate 57 points, surpassing Freiburg by two points and thereby earning a coveted spot in the Champions League. However, it’s worth noting that their away performance in the Bundesliga last season was less than stellar; they conceded 32 goals on the road, a tally only surpassed by relegated teams Bochum (34) and Holstein Kiel (39). Over the summer, Dortmund participated in the Club World Cup, reaching the quarter-finals, and also played three friendly matches (2 wins, 1 loss).

Borussia Dortmund: Key Transfers and Squad Changes

During the off-season, the club made significant acquisitions, bringing in defender Daniel Svensson and midfielder Jobe Bellingham. Conversely, forwards Youssoufa Moukoko, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, and Sébastien Haller departed the team.

Borussia Dortmund: Away Form Statistics

• The team has remained undefeated in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Bundesliga (5 wins, 1 draw).
• At least four goals were scored in the club’s four previous away league fixtures.
• Dortmund scored at least two goals in 6 of their last 8 away Bundesliga matches.

Borussia Dortmund Predicted Starting XI (3-5-2)

Gregor Kobel – Filippo Mane, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini – Julian Ryerson, Pascal Gross, Jobe Bellingham, Marcel Sabitzer, Daniel Svensson – Serhou Guirassy, Karim Adeyemi.

Borussia Dortmund: Injury Update

Defender Niklas Süle and forward Julien Duranville are unavailable due to injuries.

Match Official Spotlight: Matthias Jollenbeck

Matthias Jollenbeck (Germany)

Matches officiated – 12 (Bundesliga, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 49;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;

Red cards shown – 3;

Average fouls per match – 20;

Penalties awarded – 17%.

Expert Prediction: St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund

St. Pauli’s Home Struggles: A Historical Perspective

St. Pauli displayed a concerning lack of strength in their home performances last season. Across 17 home matches in the previous Bundesliga campaign, the club managed a mere three victories and scored only ten goals. In their last seven home league fixtures, they suffered four defeats, including one against the relegated Bochum. Furthermore, during this period, St. Pauli also succumbed to a 0-2 loss against Borussia Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund’s Improved Away Form

While Borussia Dortmund’s away record wasn’t stellar last season, their performance significantly improved towards the end of the campaign. In their last four away league encounters, the team secured three victories, notably overcoming strong opponents like Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg during this period. The only team they failed to defeat on this impressive run was champions Bayern Munich, where Dortmund still managed a commendable 2-2 draw in Munich.

Final Verdict and Betting Tip

Considering the contrasting forms and head-to-head results, I anticipate that the visitors, Borussia Dortmund, will claim all three points in this fixture. Therefore, my prediction is: “Borussia Dortmund Win” with odds of 1.74

Author: Dmitry Shchurko