Expert’s Detailed Analysis

The upcoming match marks Somalia’s third fixture in 2025. They previously faced Guinea in the current World Cup 2026 qualifiers, ending in a goalless draw (0-0). That encounter highlighted both teams’ struggles in converting chances.

Somalia’s chances of reaching the World Cup finals appear negligible. Ranked 200th by FIFA, they are already out of direct qualification contention with four rounds remaining, trailing the second-place play-off spot by a significant 11 points. Their sole point in the campaign came from that draw against Guinea. Somalia’s last victory in any match dates back to December 2019, a 1-0 win over Burundi (currently 139th in the world).

Guinea, ranked much higher at 81st in the FIFA standings, is also underperforming in these qualifiers, currently sitting second to last in Group G. They are six points ahead of Somalia but five points behind Mozambique. Clearly, the home draw against an underdog like Somalia was a missed opportunity for Guirassy and his teammates. This upcoming match will be played away, not in Somalia itself, but on neutral ground in Uganda.

This year, Guinea has played five away matches, securing only one victory (1-0 against Niger). Four of these matches ended with a scoreline of 1-0 or 0-0. Based on this, I confidently predict an Under 2.5 goals outcome combined with a double chance for the visitors (Guinea win or draw). Somalia still has significant work ahead to secure a victory.