Match Overview

The Matchday 5 fixture of the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifying tournament between the national teams of Slovenia and Sweden will take place on September 5 at the Stožice Stadium in Ljubljana. This preview covers our Slovenia vs Sweden prediction, betting tips, odds, and statistics.

Slovenia Team Analysis

Slovenia’s previous qualifying campaign was largely unsuccessful. The team avoided defeat in 6 out of 10 matches (4 wins, 2 draws) but finished 8 points behind second-placed Russia. The national team managed only three clean sheets throughout the campaign, with an average goal-scoring rate of just 1.3 goals per match. It is noteworthy that in 3 of their 4 victories, Slovenia’s opponents were Malta and Cyprus, who occupied the bottom two spots in their group.

Slovenia’s Qualification Statistics

• At least three goals were scored in 5 of Slovenia’s last World Cup qualifying matches.
• On home soil, the national team remained undefeated in 11 of their 12 previous games in this tournament (8 wins, 3 draws).
• In 10 of their last 12 home qualifying matches for the World Cup, the team conceded no more than one goal.

Slovenia’s Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)

Jan Oblak – Žan Karničnik, Jaka Bijol, David Brekalo, Erik Janža – Petar Stojanović, Timi Elšnik, Adam Gnezda Čerin, Sandi Lovrić – Benjamin Šeško, Andraž Šporar.

Sweden Team Analysis

Five victories in the last qualification round (3 defeats) allowed the Scandinavians to secure the 2nd spot in their group. The team then proceeded to the play-off matches, where they overcame the Czech Republic in extra time in the first stage, but ultimately lost to Poland in the decisive encounter. Consequently, Sweden’s winless streak in regular time during World Cup qualifiers extended to 4 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats). Furthermore, they failed to score a single goal during this period.

Sweden’s Qualification Statistics

• At least one opponent failed to score in 6 of Sweden’s previous World Cup qualifying matches.
• Away from home, the team lost in 5 of their last 7 World Cup qualifying matches (1 win, 1 draw).
• In 6 of their 7 previous away games in this tournament, the Swedes scored no more than one goal.

Sweden’s Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)

Robin Olsen – Emil Krafth, Isak Hien, Hjalmar Ekdal, Gabriel Gudmundsson – Ken Sema, Jesper Karlström, Anthony Elanga, Lucas Bergvall – Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres.

Team News: Sweden

Midfielder Dejan Kulusevski is not called up due to injury.

Match Official

José María Sánchez Martínez (Spain)

Referee Statistics (International Matches, 2024/25 – 2025/26)

Matches – 14;

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 14;

Penalties awarded – 20%.

Slovenia vs Sweden: Match Prediction and Betting Advice

Bookmakers have positioned the Scandinavians as favorites in the upcoming match, a sentiment I find difficult to agree with. While Sweden reached the decisive play-off stage in the previous qualifying cycle, their recent steps have been challenging: four matches without a win and no goals scored in regular time. If we consider the team’s previous official matches in the Nations League, a deceptive impression might emerge. Sweden won 5 out of 6 matches in that tournament (1 draw), but a different outcome would be surprising given their opponents were Estonia, Azerbaijan, and Slovakia.

Slovenia is a solid mid-tier team. Three of their four defeats in the last qualifying campaign came against opponents who finished in the top two spots. On home turf in World Cup qualifiers, the national team has remained undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches (8 wins, 3 draws). Crucially, in 8 of these home matches, Slovenia kept a clean sheet. This is also a significant factor when playing against Sweden, who failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away matches in World Cup qualifiers.

My prediction: “Slovenia win or Draw” with odds of 1.65