Match Overview
The 11th-round match of the MIR RPL between FC Sochi and Pari NN will take place on October 5 at the Fisht Stadium. Sochi vs Pari NN: prediction, odds, and statistics.
FC Sochi’s Recent Form
In the previous round, Sochi drew 0-0 away against Dynamo Makhachkala, thus breaking a five-match losing streak in the Premier League. This also marked the Southerners’ first clean sheet of the 2025/26 RPL season, making them the last club to achieve this feat. However, it was the fifth time this season that Sochi failed to score. Igor Osinkin’s side continues to sit at the bottom of the league table, trailing the playoff zone by five points.
Key Statistics for Sochi
- Sochi has conceded at least two goals in five of their last six Premier League matches.
- At home, the club has lost four of their last five RPL encounters (with one draw).
- In five of their last seven home games in this tournament, the team failed to score more than one goal.
Sochi Predicted Lineup
Sochi’s Predicted Lineup (4-5-1): Yuri Dyupin – Kirill Zaika, Yahya Attiyat-Allah, Sergei Volkov, Alexander Soldatenkov – Dmitry Vasiliev, Ruslan Bart, Anton Zinkovsky, Alexander Kovalenko, Kirill Kravtsov – Zakhar Fedorov.
Sochi Team News
Striker Pavel Melehin is injured. Midfielder Martin Kramaric is suspended.
Pari NN’s Performance Analysis
Pari NN suffered a 0-3 away defeat to Spartak in the previous round. This marked their fourth loss in the last five championship matches, with Aleksey Shpilevsky’s squad conceding even in their sole win during this period. Furthermore, Pari NN has failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their last 14 games in this competition. The club currently sits in 15th place in the overall standings, four points ahead of their closest rival.
Key Statistics for Pari NN
- In 5 of Pari NN’s last 7 Premier League matches, at least one team failed to score.
- The team is on a 13-match losing streak away from home in the championship.
- Pari NN has not scored in their last seven away matches in this competition.
Pari NN Predicted Lineup
Pari NN’s Predicted Lineup (4-3-3): Nikita Medvedev – Nikita Kakkoev, Maksim Shnaptsev, Sven Karic, Vadim Pigas – Mamadou Maiga, Andrey Ivlev, Luka Ticic – Olakunle Olusegun, Juan Boselli, Daniil Lesovoy.
Pari NN Team News
Defenders Edgardo Farina and Alexander Ektov are injured.
Match Official: Sergey Karasev
Sergey Karasev (Russia)
Matches officiated: 5 (RPL, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows): 33;
Average yellow cards per match: 6.6;
Red cards shown: 1;
Average fouls per match: 25;
Penalties awarded: 20%.
Match Prediction: Analysis
Both opponents have struggled with scoring consistency, but I am confident that both teams will spend considerable time on the attack in this upcoming match. Their precarious league positions necessitate earning points, and there’s no better opportunity than facing a direct rival in the fight for survival. Together, these clubs have already conceded 44 goals, indicating that defensive frailties will likely be a key factor in this encounter.
Sochi’s Defensive Woes
The first opponent Sochi managed to keep a clean sheet against was Makhachkala, one of the league’s lowest-scoring teams. Even then, Igor Osinkin’s men allowed their opponents to create five clear-cut scoring chances. Furthermore, Sochi has conceded 10 goals in four home matches in the 2025/26 RPL season.
Pari NN’s Defensive Record
Pari NN also has only one clean sheet this season, which also came against Makhachkala. In 7 of their 9 current championship matches, Aleksey Shpilevsky’s team conceded at least two goals. Alongside Sochi, Pari NN ranks among the bottom three teams in terms of Expected Goals Against (xGA). It’s also worth noting that these two clubs faced each other in relegation playoffs before the start of the season, with a total of seven goals scored across those matches.
Final Prediction
My prediction: Total Goals Over 2.5 with odds of 1.95.
Author: Alexey Tarabrin
Mark Thompson
