Match Preview

The 11th round match of the PARI First League (FNL) between SKA-Khabarovsk and Chernomorets will take place on September 21 at the V.I. Lenin Stadium. Here’s our prediction, betting tips, odds, and statistics for SKA-Khabarovsk vs Chernomorets.

SKA-Khabarovsk Analysis

Alexey Poddubsky’s side shared points at home with Chelyabinsk (1:1) in the previous round. The Khabarovsk team has been winless for 7 matches in the championship (3 draws, 4 losses), though they managed to score in 5 of those games. Nevertheless, with 9 goals scored, SKA-Khabarovsk lags behind 10 other teams in terms of offensive output. In the league table, the Far Eastern club occupies 12th place, 4 points clear of the relegation zone.

• Both teams scored in 5 of SKA-Khabarovsk’s last 7 First League matches.
• At home, the team has avoided defeat in 6 of their last 7 championship games (3 wins, 3 draws).
• In their last 5 home FNL matches, the club scored exactly 1 goal.

SKA-Khabarovsk Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)

Alexey Kuznetsov – Gleb Gurban, Denis Pershin, Egor Noskov, David Shavlokhov – Kamran Aliev, Batraz Gurtsev, Alexander Gagloev, Danila Yanov, Roman Emelyanov – Hakobo Alcalde.

Chernomorets Analysis

After an 8-match winless streak from the start of the tournament (3 draws, 5 losses), the Novorossiysk side secured two consecutive victories against Ufa (3:2) and Chayka (4:1). However, it’s worth noting that Chernomorets has yet to keep a clean sheet, remaining the only club without any “dry” matches. In terms of total goals conceded (15), the club is only surpassed by Volga (16) and Chayka (22). Thanks to 6 points gained, Vadim Evseev’s team has climbed to 14th place in the league table.

• No more than two goals were scored in 5 of Chernomorets’ last 7 FNL matches.
• Away from home, the team has avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 championship matches (5 wins, 3 draws).
• The club scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 away matches in this tournament.

Chernomorets Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Maxim Matyusha – Oleg Nikolaev, Stanislav Puzanov, Zaurbek Pliev, Evgeny Tonevitsky – Zaur Tarba, Anton Antonov, Kirill Morozov – Ilya Zhigulev, Ilya Kukharchuk, Vladislav Lozhkin.

Match Official

Vladimir Shamara (Russia)

Matches officiated – 18 (First and Second Leagues, 2024/25 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 79;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.4;

Red cards shown – 9;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties awarded – 17%.

Match Prediction: SKA-Khabarovsk vs Chernomorets

The Novorossiysk team delivered surprising results in their two home matches, not just in terms of victories but also in their offensive output. They netted 7 goals against Ufa and Chayka – more than half of all goals scored since the start of the championship. While Chayka struggles with defensive reliability, Ufa doesn’t typically make such defensive errors. Perhaps the change of head coach has revitalized Chernomorets, although Vadim Evseev is generally known for a more defensive style of play. This defensive aspect is certainly something the Novorossiysk team needs to improve, as they have conceded goals in 11 consecutive championship matches.

SKA-Khabarovsk is on a long winless streak, and the goals scored during this period offer little comfort to the team’s fans. However, it’s worth noting that in their last 5 FNL matches, Alexey Poddubsky’s side only failed to score against Rotor, who boast the most reliable defense in the tournament. SKA-Khabarovsk, who have conceded in 7 consecutive championship games, should look to emulate the Volgograd team’s defensive solidity.

A repeat of last year’s 6:1 scoreline is unlikely this time. However, we should expect to see at least a couple of goals. My prediction: “Total Goals Over 1.5” with odds of 1.50

Author

Author: Alexey Tarabrin