Match Overview

The 14th round match of the PARI First League (FNL) between Shinnik and Fakel will take place on October 11 at Shinnik Stadium in Yaroslavl. This article provides a comprehensive prediction and analysis, including team statistics and key insights for the upcoming game.

Shinnik

Recent Performance of Shinnik

In the previous round, Shinnik suffered a 1:3 away defeat against SKA-Khabarovsk, which ended their impressive 8-match unbeaten streak in the league (4 wins, 4 draws). Moreover, this was the first time the Yaroslavl side conceded more than one goal in their last 7 FNL matches. Shinnik has only scored 10 goals this season, a tally worse than only four other teams. Despite this, Artem Buloychik’s team managed 7 shots on target against Khabarovsk, double their average. Shinnik currently occupies the 10th position in the league table.

Key Shinnik Statistics

• Shinnik has not conceded more than one goal in 8 of their last 9 league matches.
• The team remained undefeated in the second half in 11 of their last 13 home games in the FNL (3 wins, 8 draws).
• At home, the club has scored no more than one goal in 6 of their last 8 matches in this tournament.

Shinnik’s Provisional Lineup (4-5-1)

Timofey Mitrov – Vadim Karpov, Kirill Malyarov, Nikita Kotin, Artemiy Kosogorov – Artem Golubev, Denis Mironov, Daniil Kornyushin, Dmitry Samoylov, Albek Gongapshev – Ruslan Kul.

Fakel

Recent Performance of Fakel

The Voronezh team broke their 3-match winless streak in the league (2 draws, 1 loss) with a 2:1 victory over Volga in the last round. This was also only the second time Fakel scored more than one goal in the FNL 2025/26 season. The club has a total of 12 goals, which is the lowest among teams in the top half of the table. However, only Rotor (7) has conceded fewer goals than Fakel (8). The club has climbed to 2nd place in the overall standings.

Key Fakel Statistics

• Fakel conceded goals in 5 of their last 7 First League matches.
• Away from home, the Voronezh side remained undefeated in 7 of their last 9 league matches (5 wins, 2 draws).
• In 8 of their last 10 away games in this tournament, Fakel scored exactly 1 or 2 goals.

Fakel’s Provisional Lineup (4-2-2)

Daniil Frolkin – Igor Yurganov, Yuri Zhuravlev, Ilya Gaponov, Vasily Cherov – Abdula Bagamaev, Butta Magomedov, Ravil Netfullin, Nuri Abdokov – Georgy Gongadze, Belaidi Pusi.

Referee

Igor Kaplenkov (Russia)

Referee Statistics

Matches – 6 (First League, 2025/26); Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 25; Average yellow cards per match – 4.2; Red cards shown – 2; Average fouls per match – 26; Penalties – 17%.

Match Prediction: Shinnik vs Fakel

Shinnik’s Performance Analysis

The Yaroslavl team played an uncharacteristic match in the previous round. For only the second time in the current championship, the team had more possession than their opponent and created 8 goal-scoring opportunities, matching their best result of the season in this metric. Shinnik managed to score but also conceded quite a lot. It is unlikely that Artem Buloychik’s team will stick to the same tactics in the upcoming game. Nevertheless, the hosts have good chances to extend their 4-match home scoring streak in the championship.

Fakel’s Performance Analysis

Oleg Vasilenko’s return to Voronezh has been successful. Fakel ended their winless streak in the FNL, showing good attacking prowess. However, they also allowed their opponent many opportunities near their goal. It is worth noting that Vasilenko’s previous club also conceded fairly regularly. Fakel has conceded 8 goals, with 7 of them coming in their last seven First League matches.

My prediction: Shinnik Individual Total Over 0.5.

Author: Alexey Tarabrin