Match Overview

The first leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League qualification playoff between “Rosenborg” (Norway) and “Mainz” (Germany) will take place on August 21st at the Lerkendal Stadium in Trondheim. This detailed preview covers the teams’ current form, key statistics, and a unique betting insight for the “Rosenborg” – “Mainz” fixture.

Rosenborg

The Norwegian side has successfully navigated two stages of this Conference League campaign. In the 1st round, Alfred Johansson’s charges comfortably defeated “Banga” (5:0, 2:0). However, the clash with “Hammarby” proved more challenging (0:0, 1:0). Notably, Rosenborg comes into this match having kept four consecutive clean sheets, a stark contrast to their previous nine matches in the tournament where they conceded goals. This marks the club’s third participation in the Conference League, yet the Scandinavian team has never advanced to the group stage.

Rosenborg Team Statistics

• Rosenborg has remained undefeated in 7 of their last 8 Conference League matches (4 wins, 3 draws).
• At home, the team has conceded no more than one goal in 6 of their last 7 matches in this competition.
• The club has opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home games in the Conference League.

Anticipated Rosenborg Lineup (4-3-3)*

Sander Tangvik – Mikkel Konradsen Ceide, Adrian Pereira, Aslak Fonn Witry, Tomas Nemcik – Ole Kristian Selnaes, Santeri Väänänen, Simen Nordli – Ole Sæter, Dino Islamovic, Jesper Reitan.

Mainz

The team finished 6th in the previous Bundesliga season, earning them a spot in the Conference League. Mainz is not a frequent participant in European competitions; their last appearance on the international stage was in the 2016/17 season. In the Europa League group stage that year, the Germans lost only once but ultimately finished third. Mainz’s two earlier Europa League campaigns ended in the very first knockout round.

Mainz Team Statistics

• Both teams scored in 5 of Mainz’s last 7 Europa League matches.
• The team has been undefeated in 5 of their last 6 matches in this tournament (2 wins, 3 draws).
• In 4 of their last 5 away matches in the Europa League, the club scored no more than one goal.

Anticipated Mainz Lineup (4-4-2)*

Robin Zentner – Anthony Caci, Philipp Mwene, Danny da Costa, Dominik Kohr – Maxim Leitsch, Keishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Lee Jae-sung – Nadim Amiri, Benedikt Höllerbach.

Referee

Oleksiy Derevinsky (Ukraine)

Referee Performance Metrics

Matches officiated – 6 (International matches, 2024/25 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 20;

Penalties awarded – 17%.

Match Prediction: Rosenborg – Mainz

Match Analysis: Team Experience and Home Advantage

Bookmakers have positioned Bo Henriksen’s side as favorites in this match. While the Bundesliga is undoubtedly a stronger league than the Norwegian championship, Mainz has not been on the international stage since 2016. Conversely, Rosenborg possesses significant European experience. Furthermore, the Scandinavian team has shown commendable results in the Conference League, and at home, they have remained unbeaten in 6 out of 7 matches in this tournament (4 wins, 2 draws).

Mainz’s Recent Form and Key Player Absence

Mainz equaled their best Bundesliga result last season; however, the team faltered towards the end of the tournament. In their last 9 league matches, the Germans secured only one victory (5 draws, 3 losses), and that win came against already-relegated Bochum. It is important to note that their top scorer, Jonathan Burkardt, left the team during the offseason. Without him, breaking through Rosenborg’s defense – which has yet to concede in this Conference League campaign – will be a formidable challenge.

Final Prediction and Betting Tip

I would not be surprised if the Norwegians avoid defeat. However, I suggest playing it safe with a positive handicap. My prediction: “Rosenborg with a (+1) handicap” at odds of 1.45

Prediction Author

Alexey Tarabrin

Important Note

* For each team, the starting lineup from their previous match is indicated.