Match Overview

The decisive second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2025/26 qualification playoff will feature Rayo Vallecano (Spain) taking on Neman Grodno (Belarus) on August 28th at the Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid. Rayo Vallecano holds a slim 1-0 advantage from the first leg. This preview offers an in-depth match prediction, betting odds analysis, and key statistics for the Rayo Vallecano vs Neman Grodno clash.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

In the initial encounter, the Spanish squad managed to secure an away victory, scoring the only goal late in the game (1-0). This triumph extended Rayo Vallecano’s impressive unbeaten streak across all competitions to seven matches, comprising five wins and two draws. Crucially, the club has also kept a clean sheet in four of these fixtures. To progress to the main stage of the Conference League, Rayo Vallecano now only needs to avoid a defeat within the regulation 90 minutes. It is worth noting that this is only Rayo Vallecano’s second appearance in European club competitions throughout their history.

• The team has failed to win in 7 of their last 8 home matches in La Liga (5 draws, 2 losses).
• Fewer than four goals were scored in 8 of the club’s last 11 home league games.
• The Spanish side has not scored more than one goal in 7 of their last 9 home fixtures in La Liga.

Rayo Vallecano Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)*

Augusto Batalla – Florian Lejeune, Alfonso Espino, Joshua Vertraoud, Ivan Balliu – Gerard Gumbau, Oscar Trejo, Randy Nteka, Unai Lopez, Fran Perez – Sergio Camello.

Neman Grodno Analysis

Following their defeat in the first leg, Igor Kovalevich’s squad suffered their second loss in seven matches during the current Conference League campaign (4 wins, 1 draw). Notably, the team failed to score in both of these lost fixtures. To advance to the tournament’s group stage, the Belarusian side must secure a victory by at least a two-goal margin within the 90 minutes; if they win by a single goal, extra time will be played. It’s important to highlight that Neman Grodno has never before competed in the main draw of any European competition.

• The club has avoided defeat in regular time in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Conference League (3 wins, 2 draws).
• The team conceded exactly 1 or 2 goals within 90 minutes in 5 of their previous 7 away games in this European competition.
• The Belarusians have not scored in the first half in their last 6 away matches in the Conference League.

Neman Grodno Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)*

Maksim Belov – Konstantin Kuchinsky, Egor Parkhomenko, Ivan Sadovnichiy, Yuri Pantya – Oleg Evdokimov, Andrey Yakimov, Mikhail Kozlov, Sergey Pushnyakov, Anton Suchkov – Pavel Savitsky.

Neman Squad Update

Midfielder Mikhail Kozlov will be unavailable due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

Referee Analysis

Jérémie Pignard (France)

Matches officiated – 6 (International fixtures, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 30;

Average yellow cards per match – 5;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties awarded – 33%.

Rayo Vallecano vs Neman Grodno: Match Prediction

In the first leg, the Spanish side had to exert considerable effort to overcome Neman Grodno’s resistance. For the return match, I do not anticipate a significantly more dominant performance from Rayo Vallecano. At home, the team generally struggles to secure victories: they have failed to win in 7 of their last 8 home La Liga fixtures (5 draws, 2 losses). Moreover, Rayo Vallecano has not achieved a large-margin victory on home turf since the 2022/23 season.

Neman Grodno’s Away Performance

The Belarusian club has shown commendable performances away from home in European competitions, with only two defeats in their last seven Conference League away matches (3 wins, 2 draws). In both of those losses, Neman Grodno did not concede by more than a two-goal margin. Additionally, over this period, the Grodno side has let in a total of just seven goals.

Final Verdict

It is also important to consider the high probability that Rayo Vallecano, similar to the first leg, might field a less-than-optimal lineup. Therefore, I anticipate the Belarusian side will put up significant resistance against the hosts and manage to avoid a heavy defeat. My final prediction: “Neman Grodno with a (+2.5) Handicap” with odds of 2.20.

Author: Dmitry Shchurko

* The starting lineup listed for each team is based on their last match in this tournament.