AVS — Alverca : Match Preview and Prediction for October 04,2025

AVS: Deep Crisis and Poor Form

The team is engulfed in a profound crisis. Occupying the last position in the league table with just one point after seven rounds and enduring a streak of four consecutive defeats, the numbers speak volumes about their struggles. A recent coaching change has not yielded immediate results; Joan Pedro Sousa’s debut match ended in a crushing 3-0 defeat against Estrela Amadora.

Coach’s Assessment and Statistical Woes

The new manager himself does not hide the team’s problems. In his comments, he explicitly states: “We concede too many goals, create few chances, take few shots on goal, and score sparingly.” These are not merely words but a factual assessment, corroborated by statistics: AVS boasts the league’s worst attack (0.57 goals per match) and the second-worst defense (2.43 goals conceded per match).

Last Match Performance and Critical Squad Issues

The previous encounter against Estrela Amadora was a stark illustration of their current predicament. Despite an equal number of total shots (11-11), AVS players managed only two shots on target. The Expected Goals (xG) metric of 1.04 against the opponent’s 2.70 merely underscores the disparity in the quality of chances created. The team is in disarray, a situation exacerbated by significant personnel losses: key defender Guilhem Molina is injured, another defensive player, Paulo Vitor, is suspended, and starting forward Oscar Perea has departed for the U-20 World Cup.

Alverca: Rising Form and Strategic Victories

In stark contrast to the struggling AVS, Custódio Castro’s team presents a completely different picture. Alverca is on the rise, having secured two victories in their last three matches. Their most telling display was their recent triumph over a strong Vitoria Guimaraes side with a 2-0 scoreline.

Resilience and Tactical Prowess

This result is doubly valuable, as Alverca played the entire second half with a man disadvantage after a red card. The team did not crumble but instead demonstrated tactical discipline and organization, scoring their second goal in the 97th minute. Even AVS coach Joan Pedro Sousa complimented their opponents in an interview, calling Alverca a team of great quality that could be the surprise of the season.

Youthful Potential and Counter-Attacking Threat

Alverca’s manager, Custódio Castro, confidently speaks about the progress of his young team. Alverca is the second youngest team among the top seven European leagues, and this potential is being realized through collective action. Seasonal statistics highlight their strength: the team ranks first in the league for the number of counter-attacks and goals scored from them, making them a formidable weapon against an opponent with a porous defense. While Alverca does have some personnel losses, they do not appear critical when compared to the host’s issues.