Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen : Match Preview and Prediction for November 01,2025
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Match Forecasts
Werder’s Recent Form
Werder has enjoyed a favorable schedule recently, allowing them to remain unbeaten for three consecutive rounds. Mainz appears to be another manageable opponent, even away from home.
Mainz’s Bundesliga Struggles
Currently, Mainz occupies the 16th relegation playoff spot. Their participation in the Europa Conference League group stage is noticeably impacting their Bundesliga performance. A string of four defeats has only been broken by two European victories, where they stand sixth in their group. Their domestic balance has severely worsened after a 0-2 home exit from the DFB-Pokal against Stuttgart.
Werder’s Improved Domestic Run
Following heavy losses to Freiburg (0-3) and Bayern (0-4), Werder managed to collect seven out of nine possible points against St. Pauli (1-0), Heidenheim (2-2), and Union Berlin (1-0). All their victories were against teams in the bottom half of the table. Their recent win against Union Berlin propelled them to ninth place. While their goal-scoring hasn’t drastically improved, weaker opponents, unlike Heidenheim at home (3.26 xGA), have failed to capitalize on their chances.
Offensive Output and Prediction
Mainz has also underperformed in front of goal, scoring 2.87 goals less than expected, while an average of two goals conceded per game adds to their defensive concerns. Given that Werder creates even fewer chances (11.03 xG) than the “Carnival club” Mainz (11.87 xG), I am predicting a Total Under. Despite the odds being around 2.50, a successful bet would yield a decent profit.
Statistic-Based Predictions
Goals in Head-to-Head Encounters
No more than 3 goals were scored in 6 out of the last 8 head-to-head matches at Mainz’s home ground in the Bundesliga.Werder’s Scoring Record
Werder scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 out of the last 8 head-to-head matches at Mainz’s home ground in the Bundesliga.Corner Kicks Advantage
Werder won the corner kick battle with a handicap of (+1.5) in 7 out of the last 9 head-to-head matches at Mainz’s home ground in the Bundesliga.
Mark Thompson
