Team Form and Recent Performance

At the start of the season, Toulouse won their first two matches without conceding a single goal. However, they then faced formidable opponents: PSG (3:6) and Lille (1:2). Surprisingly, Toulouse managed to score three goals against the champions. In their last round against Auxerre (0:1), the team missed an opportunity to secure at least a point: Frank Magri failed to convert a penalty in the third minute, and Toulouse played with a numerical advantage from the 64th minute. To not score a single goal with an expected 2.33 xG and three clear goal-scoring opportunities is nonsensical. Clearly, the team needs to work on its finishing.

The “Canaries” (Nantes) had a less prolific start to the season, scoring only one goal in their first four rounds, with all matches featuring under 1.5 goals. However, last weekend in the Breton Derby, Nantes delivered a vibrant performance, scoring twice. The team came back from 0:2 down against Rennes, with Youssef El-Arabi scoring the winning goal in the 96th minute (3:2). Notably, Nantes created more chances, confirmed by their 2.11 xG.

Statistics from last season’s head-to-head matches — two goalless draws — and current trends suggest a bet on Total Under. Despite both teams showing “over” results in individual matches, the overall balance leans towards low-scoring affairs.