Match Overview

The Ligue 1 Round 4 match between Olympique Marseille and Lorient is scheduled for September 12 at the Stade Vélodrome. This detailed preview offers a comprehensive prediction and betting insights, including key statistics for this anticipated fixture.

Marseille Team Analysis

Marseille’s Current Form

After a challenging away trip to Rennes in the opening round of the championship, resulting in a 0:1 defeat, Marseille quickly bounced back with an impressive 5:2 victory over Paris FC on their home turf. However, their momentum was short-lived, as they subsequently suffered another defeat, losing 0:1 in a fiercely contested match against Lyon. With a total of 3 points, the team currently occupies 10th place in the league table. A significant concern for the club is its defensive record, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 13 championship encounters. Despite these defensive issues, Marseille boasts a strong home record, having won 8 of their last 9 home matches in this tournament, though they conceded goals in seven of those wins.

• Marseille has consistently scored at least 3 goals in 7 of their last 9 home fixtures in Ligue 1.
• Both teams have found the back of the net in 12 of the previous 14 matches played at Marseille’s home ground in the championship.
• Marseille has conceded goals in 15 of their last 16 home appearances in this competition.

Marseille’s Predicted Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1)*

Geronimo Rulli – Amir Murillo, Leonardo Balerdi, CJ Egan-Riley, Timothy Weah – Angel Gomes, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Bilal Nadir, Amad Traoré – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

Marseille Team News & Transfers

Key defender CJ Egan-Riley will be unavailable for this game due to a suspension. The club has recently strengthened its squad with several new additions, including defenders Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, and Emerson, alongside midfielders Matthew O’Riley and Arthur Vermeeren.

Lorient Team Analysis

Lorient’s Rollercoaster Start

Lorient commenced their season with a narrow 0:1 defeat against Auxerre. They then achieved a comfortable 4:0 victory over Rennes, who were reduced to nine men early in the 11th minute. However, in the previous round, despite playing at home, they suffered a devastating 1:7 loss to Lille. This marked Lorient’s heaviest defeat in Ligue 1 history, as they conceded 7 goals in a single match for the very first time. Like Marseille, Lorient has accumulated only 3 points so far, placing them 15th in the league standings. Over their 3 matches, Olivier Pantaloni’s squad has conceded a total of 8 goals – a higher tally than any other team in the tournament. 

• At least three goals have been scored in 7 of Lorient’s previous 9 championship fixtures.
• The team has suffered defeats in 9 of their last 11 matches in Ligue 1.
• Lorient has managed to score at least one goal in 6 of their last 8 encounters in this tournament.

Lorient’s Predicted Starting Lineup (3-4-3)*

Bingourou Kamara – Abdoulaye Diagne-Faye, Montassar Talbi, Igor Silva – Panos Katseris, Arthur Avo, Laurent Abergel, Arsen Kouassi – Karim Dermane, Sambou Soumano, Tosin Aiyegun. 

Lorient Squad Updates

Lorient has secured the services of defender Bamo Meïté on loan from Marseille.

Referee Profile

Thomas Léonard (France)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 21 (Ligue 1, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 76;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 25;

Penalties awarded – 19%.

Match Prediction: Marseille vs Lorient

Marseille’s Home Goal-Fest

In 2 of Marseille’s 3 matches this current Ligue 1 season, only 1 goal was scored. However, both of these low-scoring games took place away from home for Roberto De Zerbi’s side. In contrast, their home fixture against Paris FC was an exhilarating affair, providing spectators with a total of 7 goals. Overall, the threshold of 3 goals has been surpassed in 7 of the last 9 matches played at Marseille’s home stadium in the French championship. 

Lorient’s High-Scoring Tendencies

Lorient also frequently delivers exciting, high-scoring matches for fans. Their 3 matches in the current Ligue 1 season have collectively featured 13 goals – only Lille has a higher total with 15 goals. Examining head-to-head encounters with Marseille in the championship reveals that both teams have combined for at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 previous games. A similar pattern is observed in Lorient’s away matches in Ligue 1: at least 3 goals have been scored in 8 of their last 11 away fixtures.

Final Betting Tip

Considering these trends, all indications suggest that Marseille and Lorient will once again deliver a high-scoring encounter. Our prediction is “Total Over 2.5 Goals” with competitive odds of 1.52  

* For each team, the starting lineup from their previous match in this tournament is indicated.