Expert Analysis
For Lyon, a victory seems within reach, with their only potential setback being a player dismissal; Toulouse, on the other hand, faces a greater number of limiting factors. It’s possible that this midweek Europa League fixture might pose a challenge for Les Gones.
However, even on the European stage, they remain undefeated. In the opening round of the Europa League group stage, Lyon secured an away win against Dutch side Utrecht (1-0), converting precisely as many chances as they created (1.04 xG). Domestically in France, they find success even when underperforming their xG, with goals scored being 2.62 fewer than expected. Paulo Fonseca’s squad boasts the most robust defense in , having conceded only three goals, leading to five clean sheet victories. Their sole defeat, a 1-3 loss to Rennes, occurred after a player was sent off.
Toulouse’s defense was breached six times by PSG on their home turf. Lyon, however, has yet to face such a formidable test. Following their encounter with the champions, the Occitans squandered an away victory against Lille due to a reckless foul by Alexis Voss in the 80th minute, which resulted in a direct red card. They subsequently conceded twice in the remaining time. Another setback saw ‘Les Violets’ unable to equalize or create any significant threats during thirty minutes with a numerical advantage against Auxerre, ultimately losing 0-1.
Lyon has maintained an unbeaten record against Toulouse since 2014, with 15 wins and 3 draws across 18 matches, irrespective of the venue. Consequently, despite having less recovery time, a home victory for Lyon is anticipated.
Mark Thompson
