Match Introduction
The third-round Ligue 1 fixture between Paris FC and Metz is set to take place on August 31st at the Stade Charléty. This detailed preview offers a prediction, betting odds, and key statistics for the Paris FC vs Metz encounter.Paris FC Analysis
Early Season Struggles
As a newly promoted side, Paris FC finds themselves in the relegation zone of the French championship standings after losing both of their opening matches. Their campaign began with a 0-1 defeat to Angers, followed by a heavy 2-5 away loss against Marseille in the last round. With 6 goals conceded in just two games, the capital club currently holds the unwanted record for most goals allowed in the league. This is a stark contrast to their performance in the previous Ligue 2 season, where they boasted the second-best defense, conceding only 33 goals, trailing only champions Lorient (31).Paris FC Key Statistics
- The team has found the net in 8 of their last 9 competitive matches across Ligue 1 and Ligue 2.
- Paris FC maintains an impressive nine-match home winning streak in the second tier of French football.
- Under 3.5 goals have been scored in 6 of the club’s last 8 fixtures in Ligue 1 and Ligue 2.
Paris FC’s Predicted Lineup (5-4-1)*
Expected Starting XI
Obe Nkambadio – Samir Chergui, Moustapha Mbow, Vincent Marchetti, Otávio, Noah Sangui – Ilan Kebbal, Julien Lopez, Adama Camara, Moses Simon – Willem Geubbels.Squad Update
Midfielder Pierre Lees-Melou has joined the team.Metz Analysis
Metz’s Difficult Start
Metz’s start to the current campaign has been even more dismal than Paris FC’s. They too have suffered two defeats, but unlike their opponents, Metz has yet to find the back of the net. They lost 0-1 to Strasbourg and 0-3 to Lyon, leaving them at the very bottom of the Ligue 1 table, trailing Paris FC on goal difference. Stéphane Le Mignan’s squad is one of only two teams in the current championship, alongside Nantes, that have failed to score. Interestingly, these two teams met in Ligue 2 last season, with Metz emerging victorious in both encounters (2-1, 3-1).Metz Key Statistics
- Metz is on a 4-match winless streak (2 draws, 2 losses), including games in Ligue 1 and playoff fixtures.
- In these four matches, Metz has failed to keep a clean sheet.
- Away from home, the club has avoided defeat in 12 of their last 14 matches across Ligue 1, playoff games, and Ligue 2 (6 wins, 6 draws).
Metz’s Predicted Lineup (5-3-2)*
Expected Starting XI
Jonathan Fischer – Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Yuri-Michel M’Bula, Jean-Philippe Gbamin, Sadibou Sane, Koffi Kouao – Boubacar Traoré, Benjamin Stambouli, Gauthier Hein – Giorgi Abuaishvili, Bryan Majjo.Referee Overview
Meet the Official
Gaël Angoula (France)
Referee Statistics (Ligue 1, 2024/25)
Matches – 8;
Yellow cards shown (including second yellow) – 30;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 2;
Fouls per match average – 24;
Penalties awarded – 38%.
Match Forecast: Paris FC vs Metz
Contrasting Starts to the Season
Both newcomers to Ligue 1 this season have started poorly, suffering two defeats each. Paris FC returns to the top flight after nearly half a century, while Metz makes an immediate comeback following their relegation. However, their struggles have differed significantly. Paris FC has shown an attacking mindset, appearing quite dynamic in the final third in both their opening fixtures. The capital club arguably erred by engaging in an open game against Marseille at the Vélodrome, leading to a five-goal thrashing. Yet, Paris FC still managed to score twice against Marseille, and facing Metz, a team with a notably weaker attack, the hosts are unlikely to experience a similar defensive collapse.Home Advantage and Defensive Concerns
Furthermore, both of Paris FC’s initial Ligue 1 matches this season were played away from home. Their strength primarily lies on home turf, where they concluded the previous Ligue 2 campaign with an impressive nine-game winning streak. It’s also worth noting their offensive prowess; in 6 of those 9 victories, they scored at least two goals. Metz, on the other hand, struggles not only with a lack of attacking output but also with defensive solidity. They have conceded goals in 8 consecutive away matches, spanning Ligue 1, playoff fixtures, and Ligue 2, with at least two goals hitting their net in 5 of those games. The 4 goals conceded in their first two championship matches further indicate significant issues within the visitors’ backline.Our Betting Prediction
Considering these factors, I believe the home side will be able to score at least twice against Metz. My prediction is Paris FC Total Goals Over 1.5 with odds of 2.00
Mark Thompson