Match Overview

The second leg of the Copa Libertadores 2025 Round of 16 between Palmeiras (Brazil) and Universitario (Peru) is scheduled for August 22nd at the Allianz Parque in São Paulo. Palmeiras secured a dominant 4-0 victory in the first leg. Here’s a detailed match preview: Palmeiras vs Universitario prediction, betting odds, and key statistics.

Palmeiras Team Analysis

Abel Ferreira’s squad has all but guaranteed their progression to the next stage. Following their emphatic 4-0 away win, the Brazilian side now boasts a remarkable 7-match winning streak in the Copa Libertadores. Notably, in six of these victories, they scored at least two goals. For the return leg, Palmeiras can even afford a three-goal defeat and still advance. It’s worth mentioning that their sole loss in their last 26 tournament appearances was by a narrow margin, and they haven’t suffered a heavy defeat in this competition since 1995.

Palmeiras Key Stats

• The Brazilians have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 Copa Libertadores matches.
• At least one goal was scored in both halves in 5 of the team’s last 7 matches in this tournament.
• At home, Palmeiras has remained unbeaten for 24 consecutive Copa Libertadores games (15 wins, 9 draws).

Palmeiras Expected Lineup (4-5-1)*

Weverton – Joaquin Piquerez, Agustin Giay, Micael dos Santos Silva, Gustavo Gomez – Emiliano Martinez, Mauricio, Lucas Evangelista, Victor Roque, Ramon Sosa – Jose Lopez.

Universitario Team Analysis

The defeat in the previous match marked Universitario’s first loss in their last five Copa Libertadores fixtures (2 wins, 2 draws). To progress to the quarter-finals, Universitario would need an improbable victory by at least a five-goal margin. However, the team has struggled to score more than one goal in their last 12 tournament outings and hasn’t achieved any significant victories in the Copa Libertadores during the 21st century. Should Jorge Fossati’s side manage a four-goal win against the Brazilians, the tie would be decided by a penalty shootout.

Universitario Key Stats

• The club has not conceded more than one goal in 6 of their last 7 Copa Libertadores matches.
• Away from home, the Peruvians have failed to win in 12 of their last 13 Copa Libertadores encounters (3 draws, 9 losses).
• In 11 of their last 13 away games in this tournament, Universitario conceded the first goal.

Universitario Expected Lineup (4-5-1)*

Sebastian Britos – Williams Riveros, Aldor Corzo, Matias Di Benedetto, Cesar Inga – Andy Polo, Edison Flores, Martin Perez Guedes, Jairo Concha, Rodrigo Ureña – Alex Valera.

Defender Williams Riveros will miss the match due to suspension.

Match Referee

Piero Maza (Chile)

Referee Statistics

Matches – 16 (International matches, 2024 – 2025);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 70;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.4;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 38%.

Palmeiras vs Universitario Match Prediction

It’s safe to assume that no miracle will occur here. The Brazilian side has established a commanding lead, a deficit that would be challenging for even much stronger opponents than Universitario to overcome. It’s highly probable that the home team’s head coach will opt for squad rotation, resting key players. This scenario is unlikely to lead to another goalfest from Palmeiras. Furthermore, the team has scored no more than two goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the Copa Libertadores. At the same time, the Brazilians concede very little at home: in their last 11 home tournament fixtures, the club has conceded only 5 goals.

The Peruvians are also well aware of the situation. Universitario has only scored the necessary five goals in a Copa Libertadores match twice in their entire history. Currently, the team is struggling with goal-scoring. Jorge Fossati’s charges have not scored more than one goal in any match this tournament season, and away from home, the club has netted only five times in their last 13 Copa Libertadores encounters. I believe the Peruvians will simply aim to avoid a repeat of the first leg’s scoreline.

Our Betting Tip

My prediction: Total Goals Under 3 with odds of 1.70

Author: Alexey Tarabrin

* The starting lineup for each team refers to their last match in this tournament.