Match Overview

The second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 qualification playoff between Pafos FC (Cyprus) and Crvena Zvezda (Serbia) will take place on August 26 at the Limassol Stadium. Pafos secured a crucial 2-1 victory in the first leg. Here’s our comprehensive match preview, including predictions, analysis, and key statistics for the Pafos vs Crvena Zvezda encounter.

Pafos FC Outlook

Under the guidance of Juan Carlos Carcedo, Pafos secured a critical 2-1 away win in the initial encounter. This victory extended their impressive winning streak in the Champions League to four matches, a remarkable feat for a club making its debut in this prestigious European competition. Notably, this was the first time during this successful run that the Cypriot side conceded a goal. To advance to the main stage of the tournament, Pafos now only needs to avoid defeat in regular time.

Key Pafos Statistics

• The team remains undefeated in regular time in their last five Champions League matches (4 wins, 1 draw).
• Four out of their last five European outings have seen no more than two goals scored in 90 minutes.
• In their last five Champions League fixtures, the Cypriot squad has consistently scored either one or two goals in regular time.

Projected Pafos Lineup (4-3-3)*

Neofytos Michael – David Gomez Goldar, Derrick Luckassen, Costas Pileas, Joao Correia – Ivan Sunjic, Vlad Dragomir, Pepe Rodrigues – Bruno, Muamer Tankovic, Anderson Oliveira Silva.

Team News: Pafos Injuries

The availability of defender Joao Correia and forward Muamer Tankovic for this match is uncertain, following injuries sustained in the first leg.

Crvena Zvezda Analysis

Having lost the first leg, Crvena Zvezda suffered their first defeat in their last six Champions League matches, a sequence that previously included four wins and one draw. Furthermore, this was the first instance in this period where they conceded more than one goal. Despite the loss, the club extended its scoring streak in the Champions League to an impressive 11 consecutive matches. To secure a spot in the main stage, the Serbian giants must now win by at least a two-goal margin in regular time. A one-goal victory would send the tie into extra time. It’s worth noting that Crvena Zvezda has featured in the Champions League group stage in the past two seasons.

Crvena Zvezda Key Statistics

• The club has been defeated in regular time in 8 of their last 11 away Champions League fixtures.
• At least three goals were scored in 90 minutes in 5 of their last 7 away European matches.
• The Serbian side conceded at least two goals in regular time in 8 of their last 11 away Champions League games.

Projected Crvena Zvezda Lineup (4-5-1)*

Matheus – Seol Young-Woo, Milos Veljkovic, Veljko Milosavljevic, Nair Tiknizyan – Mahmoudou Bajo, Peter Olayinka, Mirko Ivanic, Timi Elsnik, Xavi Babicka – Cherif Ndiaye.

Match Official

The referee for this encounter will be Michael Oliver (England).

Referee Statistics

• Matches officiated: 17 (International fixtures, 2024/25–2025/26);
• Yellow cards shown (including second yellows): 71;
• Average yellow cards per match: 4.2;
• Red cards shown: 3;
• Average fouls per match: 23;
• Penalties awarded: 35% of observed situations.

Match Prediction: Pafos vs Crvena Zvezda

Pafos’ Defensive Strength

The Cypriot side secured an excellent result in the away fixture and is highly likely to adopt a disciplined, defensive approach at home. Throughout their Champions League campaign, Pafos has demonstrated robust defensive capabilities, conceding just two goals in their last five matches in the competition, keeping three clean sheets. Furthermore, in their last ten home European matches, the club has not conceded more than one goal, shutting out opponents on seven occasions during this impressive run.

Crvena Zvezda’s Away Scoring Woes

Even at home, Crvena Zvezda struggled to score more than one goal against Pafos, and their overall attacking output on the road is not particularly high. In their last ten away Champions League encounters, the Serbian team managed to breach the opposition’s defense more than once on only a single occasion, and failed to score at all in two of those matches. It’s also worth noting that in the current Champions League campaign, the club has scored just one goal in an away fixture against Lincoln Red Imps from Gibraltar.

Final Verdict and Betting Tip

Considering the defensive solidity of Pafos and Crvena Zvezda’s struggles on the road, I believe Pafos has the capacity to neutralize their opponent’s attack and prevent them from scoring more than one goal in regular time. My final prediction is:  Crvena Zvezda Total Goals Under 1.5.

Author’s Note

Author: Dmitry Shchurko

Lineup Disclaimer

* The starting lineup listed for each team reflects their formation in their previous match in this tournament.