Match Overview

The 5th round clash between AC Milan and Napoli is scheduled for September 28 at the iconic San Siro stadium. This preview offers a detailed prediction, betting odds, and key statistics for the Milan – Napoli encounter.

AC Milan: Team Form & Performance

Under the guidance of Massimiliano Allegri, AC Milan secured a comfortable 3-0 away win against Udinese in their previous outing. This victory marks their seventh win in the last nine matches (with two losses) and their first comprehensive win by a significant margin during this period. Furthermore, the team has kept clean sheets in their previous three league encounters. The Rossoneri currently sit third in the league table with nine points. Notably, Milan boasts an impressive defensive record this season, having conceded only two goals, a figure surpassed only by Roma with one.

AC Milan: Key Statistics

• The club has remained unbeaten in 13 of their last 16 home matches in (7 wins, 6 draws).
• The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 home league games.
• Milan have not conceded more than one goal in 7 of their last 10 home fixtures.

AC Milan’s Predicted Lineup (3-5-2)*

Pietro Terracciano – Matteo Gabbia, Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic – Pervis Estupinan, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Alexis Saelemaekers – Christian Pulisic, Santiago Gimenez.

Midfielder Ardon Jashari is sidelined due to injury.

Napoli: Team Form & Performance

In their previous fixture, Antonio Conte’s squad faced significant resistance from Pisa at home last round, yet successfully clinched another three points with a 3-2 scoreline. This extends Napoli’s winning streak in the league to five matches. Additionally, for the first time since 2023, the team has scored more than two goals in two consecutive games. The club leads the league table with 12 points. It’s worth noting that Napoli, with 9 goals scored in the current championship, is second only to Inter (11).

Napoli: Key Statistics

• The team has gone unbeaten in their last seven away matches in (4 wins, 3 draws).
• No more than two goals were scored in 6 of the club’s previous 7 away league games.
• Napoli has kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 7 away matches.

Napoli’s Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)*

Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Sam Beukema, Alessandro Buongiorno, Leonardo Spinazzola – Matteo Politano, Kevin De Bruyne, Billy Gilmour, Elif Elmas, Scott McTominay – Rasmus Hojlund.

Defender Alessandro Buongiorno and striker Romelu Lukaku are both out due to injuries.

Referee Analysis

Daniele Chiffi (Italy)

Matches: 18 (, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow Cards (including second yellows): 66;

Average Yellow Cards per match: 3.7;

Red Cards: 2;

Average Fouls per match: 21;

Penalties awarded: 28%.

Match Prediction: AC Milan vs Napoli

In my opinion, Massimiliano Allegri’s side will find it challenging to pose a significant attacking threat against Napoli. AC Milan has not been particularly prolific at home, scoring more than one goal in only five of their last 14 home matches. The most formidable opponents they managed to score at least twice against during this period were Fiorentina and Bologna.

Napoli, on the other hand, exhibits strong defensive play, limiting their opponents’ chances. Even on the road, the team appears confident: in their last seven away league fixtures, Napoli conceded in only two matches, never more than a single goal each time. Furthermore, in their last ten head-to-head encounters against Milan at the San Siro in , Napoli kept six clean sheets and never allowed their opponent to score more than one goal.

I anticipate another high-quality defensive performance from Napoli. Therefore, my prediction is: Milan Total Goals Under 1.5 with odds of 1.55

* For each team, the starting lineup from their previous match in this tournament is indicated.