Guadalajara — Necaxa : Match Preview and Prediction for September 24,2025

Guadalajara’s Form and Recent Performance

Guadalajara enters this match in a deeply disorganized state. Their most recent fixture against Toluca ended in a crushing 0-3 defeat on their home turf. However, the scoreline only tells half the story. A closer look at the statistics reveals a staggering 37 shots on goal combined, with 15 of them on target. The aggregate xG of 3.43 vividly illustrates the completely open nature of the game, where both defenses were severely exposed and struggling.

Pervasive Injury Woes

Adding to their on-field woes, the team is currently battling a significant injury crisis. The club has officially confirmed the absence of eight players. This list includes crucial starting squad members such as midfielders Roberto Alvarado and Érick Gutiérrez, along with defender Alan Mozo. Such extensive absences represent a critical blow to their central midfield and defensive stability.

Key Suspension and Defensive Vulnerabilities

The icing on the cake, or rather, the final blow, is the suspension of their pivotal defensive midfielder, Rubén González. His absence will undoubtedly empower Necaxa’s attack, as Guadalajara’s midfield will be left without its primary ball-winner and disruptor. With such a significant void in the holding midfield and a revamped defensive line, it will be exceedingly difficult for the home side to keep a clean sheet. Their previous home fixture against Cruz Azul (1-2) and the away shootout with Tijuana (3-3) further underscore coach Milito’s team’s tendency to engage in high-scoring affairs.

Necaxa’s Recent Road Performance

Necaxa arrives in Guadalajara on the back of a narrow 1-0 victory over Puebla, secured fortuitously by an own goal. However, this result should not mask their recent struggles. Prior to that win, Fernando Gago’s squad suffered two consecutive heavy away defeats, losing 0-3 to both Tijuana and Monterrey. This pattern highlights a recurring vulnerability in Necaxa’s defense when playing on the road.

A Striking Away Goals Trend

This brings us to a crucial point: a compelling trend suggests that high-scoring games are almost a certainty when Necaxa plays away. In 16 of their last 19 away matches, three or more goals were scored. This is not a mere coincidence but a clear pattern reflecting their away game philosophy – an open, high-risk approach that consistently leads to a flurry of goals at both ends of the pitch.

Offensive Strategy and High Pressing

Seasonal statistics further reinforce Necaxa’s attacking focus. They rank second in the league for shots taken from outside the box, indicating a readiness to unleash attempts whenever an opportunity arises. Moreover, both Necaxa and Guadalajara are among the league leaders in high turnovers, meaning both teams actively employ a high-pressing strategy. This aggressive approach is bound to lead to mistakes, misplaced passes, and dangerous counter-attacks from both sides.