Qarabag — Sumgayit : Match Preview and Prediction for August 22,2025

Qarabag’s Current Form and European Success

The reigning Azerbaijani champions are currently in exceptional form. Gurban Gurbanov’s squad recently secured an impressive 3-1 away victory against Ferencváros in Budapest during the crucial Champions League playoffs. This outstanding result clearly demonstrates the team’s elite quality and peak readiness.

Defensive Prowess and Key Performers

While they did concede one goal in that particular match, a detailed analysis of their defenders’ ratings after the game paints a picture of robust performance. Experts rated Kevin Medina’s display as nearly perfect, awarding him an impressive 8.5. Bahlul Mustafazade also performed with minimal errors, effectively shutting down Ferencváros’ dangerous forward, Barnabás Varga.

Statistical Dominance in Defence

A deeper dive into their Champions League qualification statistics further illuminates Qarabag’s defensive strength. The team leads in possession recovery metrics, and defender Kevin Medina stands out as the top player in the entire tournament for both tackles and ball recoveries. Goalkeeper Mateusz Kochalski is also among the top three for the number of saves made. This consistent performance is not accidental; it is a clear indicator of a well-established defensive system that yields significant results at the highest competitive levels. In earlier qualification rounds against Shelbourne and Shkëndija, Qarabag managed to keep clean sheets in three out of four matches. Furthermore, the team maintains a formidable record at home: their goal has remained untouched in 7 of their last 9 home fixtures.

Sumgayit’s Opening Victory and Manager’s Caution

Sumgayit commenced their season with a decisive 3-0 victory over Kapaz. However, it would be unwise to be misled by the scoreline alone. Sumgayit’s head coach, Saša Ilić, explicitly stated after the match that his team experienced difficulties in the second half. He candidly admitted, “We cannot perform like this against Qarabag and Neftchi. If we display such a performance against them, they will undoubtedly punish us.”

Acknowledged Vulnerabilities Against Elite Teams

These are not merely external observations, but the direct and honest assessment from the team’s manager, who clearly comprehends the genuine state of his squad. He fully understands that even in a winning effort, his players committed errors that an Azerbaijani football giant like Qarabag would ruthlessly exploit. Furthermore, playing away from home has historically been a significant vulnerability for Sumgayit.

Persistent Struggles with Away Goal Scoring

Statistical data strongly reinforces this point. In 9 of their last 12 away fixtures, Sumgayit failed to register a single goal. This is more than just a passing trend; it represents a systemic problem with converting scoring opportunities on the road, an issue that is highly unlikely to be resolved when facing the league’s most meticulously organized defense.