Match Overview: Mainz vs Rosenborg

The decisive second leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League qualification play-offs is set to take place on August 28th at the Mewa Arena, featuring German club Mainz against Norway’s Rosenborg. The first encounter ended with a 2:1 advantage for Rosenborg. This analysis provides a unique forecast, key statistics, and insights into the upcoming Mainz – Rosenborg clash.

Mainz’s Campaign in Focus

In their opening match of the Conference League, Bo Henriksen’s squad suffered a 1:2 defeat. This result marks only the third loss for Mainz in their last 11 European fixtures, which also include 3 wins and 5 draws. Notably, the team has managed to keep a clean sheet in just 3 of these matches. To secure a spot in the Conference League group stage, the German outfit must achieve a victory by at least a two-goal margin in this return leg.

Key Mainz Statistics

• Both teams found the net in 6 of Mainz’s last 8 international matches.
• The club has scored no more than one goal in 11 of their last 13 European outings.
• At home, the Germans boast an unbeaten streak of 5 Europa League matches, consisting of 2 wins and 3 draws.

Mainz Probable Lineup (4-5-1)*

Robin Zentner – Anthony Caci, Philipp Mwene, Danny da Costa, Stefan Bell – Keishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Lee Jae-Sung, Dominik Kohr, Nadiem Amiri – Brajan Gruda (potential replacement for injured Benedict Hollerbach).

Rosenborg’s Road to Qualification

The previous victory was Rosenborg’s fourth in their last five Conference League matches (1 draw), and it was the first time they conceded a goal during this run. To advance to the main tournament stage, Alfred Johansson’s men simply need to avoid defeat in the upcoming game. Historically, Rosenborg has suffered only three losses in the Conference League (9 wins, 3 draws), with all of these defeats being by at least a two-goal difference. If the club loses by exactly one goal, the tie will proceed to extra time.

Key Rosenborg Statistics

• The team scored precisely 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 Conference League fixtures.
• The Norwegian side has avoided defeat in 5 of their last 7 away matches in this competition, securing 4 wins and 1 draw.
• In 7 of their last 8 Conference League games, Rosenborg has not conceded more than one goal.

Rosenborg Probable Lineup (4-3-3)*

Sander Tangvik – Mikkel Konradsen Ceïde, Adrian Pereira, Aslak Fonn Witry, Tomas Nemcik – Ole Kristian Selnaes, Santeri Väänänen, Simen Nordli – Emil Konradsen Ceïde, Dino Islamovic, Jesper Reitan.

Match Official: Referee Details

Sander van der Eijk (Netherlands)

Matches officiated – 5 (International fixtures, 2025/26); Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 7; Average yellow cards per match – 1.4; Red cards shown – 1; Average fouls per match – 26; Penalties awarded – 40%.

Mainz vs Rosenborg: Our Match Prediction

Bookmakers may have underestimated the Norwegian team in the first leg. Although Alfred Johansson’s squad snatched victory just before the final whistle, they generally outperformed their opponents and could have scored more goals. Now, Rosenborg’s primary objective is to keep a clean sheet. Prior to their encounter with Mainz, the Scandinavian team had maintained a remarkable 4-match clean sheet in the Conference League, and on the road in this tournament, they have not conceded more than two goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.

The German side is under pressure to score and secure a win, but they face challenges on both fronts. Mainz has only claimed victory in 3 of their last 11 European matches (5 draws, 3 defeats), and in 10 of those games, they failed to score more than twice. Furthermore, their performance at the start of the current season has been modest: a narrow 1-0 win against a Second Bundesliga team in the national cup, followed by a 0-1 league defeat to Cologne. Compounding their issues, Mainz lost striker Benedict Hollerbach, who was expected to be their main attacking threat, to injury in that league match.

Our Final Forecast

Based on the analysis, our prediction for this match is: Mainz Individual Total Goals Under 2.

Author: Alexey Tarabrin

* The starting lineup provided for each team reflects their composition in their previous match in this tournament.