Match Overview: Lithuania vs Netherlands

The highly anticipated 6th-round qualifier for the 2026 FIFA World Cup will see the national teams of Lithuania and the Netherlands face off on September 7th. The match will be held at the Darius and Girėnas Stadium in Kaunas. This encounter promises an interesting battle, with a detailed forecast, betting odds, and statistics provided below.

Lithuania Team Analysis

Lithuania’s Qualification Journey So Far

After four matches in the current World Cup qualifying campaign, the Lithuanian national team sits in 4th place, trailing the top three by four points. The Lithuanians are yet to secure a victory but have suffered only one defeat, drawing three of their fixtures. Most recently, Edgaras Jankauskas’s squad drew 1-1 at home against Malta, a result that highlighted both their resilience and their challenges in converting draws into wins.

Key Lithuanian Statistics

• The national team has lost 14 of its last 19 World Cup qualifiers (with 1 win and 4 draws), indicating a struggle for consistent results.
• A maximum of two goals were scored in 4 of Lithuania’s last 5 matches in this tournament, suggesting low-scoring encounters.
• At home, Lithuania has managed only one victory in their last nine World Cup qualification games, underscoring their difficulty in securing wins on home turf.

Expected Lithuania Lineup (5-4-1)

Edvinas Gertmonas – Edgaras Utkus, Justas Lasickas, Artemijus Tutyškinas, Edvinas Girdvainis, Klaudijus Upstas – Artur Dolžnikov, Gvidas Gineitis, Gratas Sirgedas, Modestas Vorobjovas – Gytis Paulauskas.

Team News: Lithuania Squad Update

Defender Edgaras Utkus will be unavailable for this crucial match due to a suspension, which could impact the team’s defensive stability.

Netherlands Team Analysis

Netherlands: Group Leaders’ Form

Ronald Koeman’s squad currently tops Group G, level on points with Poland and Finland (both on 7), but with the advantage of having played one less game. In their last outing, the Dutch surprisingly drew 1-1 at home against Poland. This result extended their impressive unbeaten streak in World Cup qualifiers to 12 matches, comprising 9 victories and 3 draws, demonstrating their strong, albeit sometimes unpredictable, form.

Key Dutch Statistics

• The Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 World Cup qualifying matches, highlighting their defensive solidity.
• On the road, the national team boasts a five-match unbeaten run in this tournament, with three wins and two draws, indicating their strength away from home.
• Despite their strong form, the team has not scored more than two goals in 7 of their last 9 away fixtures in World Cup qualifiers, suggesting that high-scoring away victories are uncommon.

Expected Netherlands Lineup (4-4-2)

Bart Verbruggen – Virgil van Dijk, Denzel Dumfries, Micky van de Ven, Ian Paul van Hecke – Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Frenkie de Jong, Xavi Simons – Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay.

Match Referee Profile

Referee: Elchin Masiyev

Elchin Masiyev (Azerbaijan)

Referee Statistics (2024–2025 International Matches)

Matches officiated: 5 Yellow cards shown (including second yellows): 24 Average yellow cards per match: 4.8 Red cards shown: 0 Average fouls per match: 27 Penalties awarded: 20%

Match Prediction: Lithuania vs Netherlands

Analyzing the Match-up

The visiting Dutch squad are undoubtedly the clear favorites for this upcoming clash. However, the hosts, Lithuania, possess a reasonable chance of at least avoiding a heavy defeat. In the current qualifying cycle, the Lithuanians have only suffered one loss in four matches, a narrow 0-1 reverse. Furthermore, Lithuania has not been defeated by a wide margin in 13 of their last 16 home World Cup qualifiers, suggesting they are a tough nut to crack on their own ground.

Netherlands’ Away Form and Potential Outcome

The Netherlands do not frequently achieve large-margin victories, and when they do, it’s typically against lower-ranked European teams. Notably, in their last 14 away matches in World Cup qualifiers, the Dutch have secured only one landslide win, which was against Gibraltar. Therefore, considering the recent performances of both teams, backing the hosts to keep the scoreline respectable, even in defeat, appears to be a plausible betting strategy.

Expert Betting Pick

My final prediction for this match is a bet on ‘Lithuania with a handicap of +2.5’, with odds currently standing at 1.85

Author: Oleksandr Oleksenko

Important Note on Lineups

* The listed starting lineup for each team reflects their formation in their previous match in this tournament.