Expert Analysis: Levski vs AZ Alkmaar

Only one step remains before reaching the main stage of the Conference League. The question is, who will take it – Levski, not even considered the top team in Bulgaria, or AZ Alkmaar, who reached the Round of 16 in the previous Europa League campaign?

While the answer might seem obvious, could one of Bulgaria’s most renowned clubs put up a significant fight, at least on home soil in Sofia? This summer’s qualifying campaign saw Levski face a formidable opponent similar to AZ, Braga, in the Europa League second round. The Portuguese side only managed to overcome Levski after extra time, following four goalless halves. Generally, Julio Velazquez’s side is defensively stout, conceding only four goals in 11 matches this new season, never more than one per 90 minutes.

In their last Eredivisie campaign, AZ Alkmaar secured a Conference League spot by finishing fifth. They had an entertaining run against Ilves in the second round, scoring 12 goals between them, with two-thirds attributed to the Dutch side. Currently, almost every AZ match, whether in European competitions or domestic play, tends to be high-scoring, typically ending with ‘over’ goals.

However, this doesn’t necessarily imply that the same pattern will hold true against Levski. For instance, in the 2023/24 Conference League playoff final round, the Bulgarian team faced a strong Eintracht Frankfurt. Both legs ended with under 2.5 goals – a 1-1 draw in Sofia and a 0-2 loss in Frankfurt am Main. It is anticipated that this match will also see a limited number of goals.