Match Overview: Lens vs Brest in Ligue 1

The highly anticipated third-round clash of Ligue 1 between Lens and Brest is scheduled for August 29th at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis. This fixture brings together two teams eager for points early in the season, and our analysis delves into the predictions and statistics for this exciting encounter.

Lens: Recent Form and Home Struggles

Following an opening-day defeat to Lyon (0-1), Lens secured their first victory of the season in the previous round, narrowly beating Le Havre 2-1. This crucial win propelled them to 10th place in the Ligue 1 standings. It’s worth noting that their initial loss occurred on home turf, and they’ve struggled at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis recently, having lost 7 of their last 11 home matches in the league. Furthermore, in 3 of their last 4 elite French league home games, the team failed to find the back of the net.  

Lens Key Statistics

• Lens conceded in 7 of their last 8 league matches.
• Lens’ home record in Ligue 1 shows an uncompromising run of 15 matches, with 6 wins and 9 losses.
• In 6 of Lens’ most recent home fixtures in the French top flight, at least one team failed to score.

Lens Probable Lineup (3-4-3)*

Robin Risser – Jonathan Gradit, Malang Sarr, Mathieu Udol – Ruben Aguilar, Adrien Thomasson, Fodé Silla, Deiver Machado – Florian Thauvin, Wesley Saïd, Rayan Fofana.

Brest: Current Standing and Scoring Trends

Brest suffered a 0-2 away defeat to Toulouse in their last Ligue 1 outing, extending their winless streak in the competition to three matches (one draw, two goalless losses). After two rounds, the club finds itself in 14th place in the French Championship table with just one point. Notably, Brest’s matches this Ligue 1 season have been among the highest-scoring, averaging four goals per game, similar to Marseille’s fixtures. It’s also worth recalling that in the previous season, Brest lost twice to Lens, both times by a two-goal margin (0-2, 1-3).  

Brest Key Statistics

• Brest conceded at least two goals in 6 of their last 8 Ligue 1 matches.
• Brest has failed to win in 6 of their last 7 away games in this competition (2 draws, 4 defeats).
• Brest has scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches in the French Championship.

Brest Probable Lineup (4-3-3)*

Radoslaw Majecki – Bradley Locko, Julien Le Cardinal, Brendan Chardonnet, Kenny Lala – Hugo Magnetti, Pierre Lees-Melou, Kamory Doumbia – Ludovic Ajorque, Mama Baldé, Romain Del Castillo.  

Brest Squad Update

Key midfielder Pierre Lees-Melou has departed the team, transferring to Paris FC.

Referee Profile: Abdellatif Kerraji

Abdellatif Kerraji (France)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated: 18 (Ligue 1, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows): 67;

Average yellow cards per match: 3.7;

Red cards shown: 3;

Average fouls per match: 28;

Penalty calls: 39% (of key decisions).

Match Prediction: Lens vs Brest

Despite struggling to overcome Le Havre in the previous round, where they were statistically outplayed, Pierre Sage’s Lens managed to secure a vital three points. This contrasts sharply with their opening match against Lyon, where they performed better but ended with no points. In the upcoming fixture, the hosts have a strong opportunity to add to their points tally. The Lens club appears significantly more stable than their Breton opponents. Brest showed considerable inertia last season, and this term, after losing several key players and failing to make impactful new signings, they’ve already conceded five goals in just two matches.  

Head-to-Head Advantage and Current Form

Adding to the hosts’ advantage, beyond the passionate home crowd, is their favorable head-to-head record against Brest. Lens has triumphed over Brest in 5 of their last 6 direct encounters across Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 (with only one loss). Furthermore, at their home ground, Lens has beaten their opponents in the last three elite French championship matches. Brest also comes into this game having lost their last three Ligue 1 away fixtures, with an alarming goal difference of 1-12 in those matches.  

Final Verdict: Lens to Win

Considering these factors, I believe the home side will once again overcome their favorable opponent. My prediction is a ‘Lens Victory’.    

Lineup Note

* For each team, the starting lineup from their previous match in this tournament is indicated.