Match Overview

The fifth-round match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying tournament between the national teams of Latvia and Serbia is scheduled to take place on September 6 at the Daugava Stadium in Riga. This encounter between Latvia and Serbia offers an intriguing preview, complete with a detailed forecast, betting odds, and essential statistics.

Latvia’s Form and Outlook

Team Latvia’s Campaign So Far

Paolo Nicolato’s squad has had a relatively predictable qualifying campaign thus far. The team suffered an expected away defeat to England (0:3), secured an away victory against Andorra (1:0), and in their last fixture, played out a 1:1 draw at home with Albania. It’s worth noting that in their last nine World Cup qualification matches, the Latvians have managed only two wins, alongside three draws and four losses. Latvia currently sits in 4th place, trailing the second spot by just one point.

Key Statistics for Latvia

• No more than 3 goals have been scored in 8 of Latvia’s last 9 World Cup qualifying matches.
• The national team has failed to score more than 1 goal in their last 9 matches in this tournament.
• On home turf, the Latvians have been unable to secure a victory in their last 4 consecutive World Cup qualification matches (1 draw and 3 losses).

Latvia’s Predicted Lineup (3-5-2)

Projected Starting XI

Rihards Matrevics – Antonijs Černomordijs, Daniels Balodis, Vitalijs Jagodinskis – Dmitrijs Zelenkovs, Eduards Daškevics, Aleksejs Saveļjevs, Kristers Penkevics, Deniss Meļņiks – Marko Regža, Vladislavs Gutkovskis.

Serbia’s Performance and Strengths

Serbia’s Qualification Journey

The Balkan nation has played only two matches in the current qualifiers, accumulating four points and currently holding the 3rd position in Group K. Serbia drew away with Albania (0:0), a team they are likely to contend with for the second spot in the group, and also decisively defeated Andorra 3:0 on their home ground. As a result, the national team’s unbeaten streak in World Cup qualification now stands at 11 matches, comprising 8 victories and 3 draws.

Key Statistics for Serbia

• At least 3 goals have been scored in 7 of Serbia’s last 10 World Cup qualification matches.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of the Balkan nation’s last 10 matches in this tournament.
• Away from home, the Serbians have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 11 World Cup qualification matches (7 wins and 3 draws).

Serbia’s Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Projected Starting XI

Djordje Petrovic – Aleksa Terzic, Strahinja Pavlovic, Strahinja Erakovic, Nikola Milenkovic – Lazar Samardzic, Nemanja Maksimovic, Sasa Lukic – Aleksandar Mitrovic, Andrija Zivkovic, Dusan Vlahovic.

Match Official Profile

Referee

Julian Weinberger (Austria)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 8 (International fixtures, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 42;

Average yellow cards per match – 5.3;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 26;

Penalties awarded – 38%.

Match Prediction: Latvia vs Serbia

Overall Outlook

In Group K, the top spot appears destined for England. The real battle will unfold among three contenders for the second position. Serbia has a stronger chance of securing this spot, but they have yet to face the group favorite. Therefore, they will aim to perform optimally in their matches against rivals Albania and Latvia. It’s highly probable that the Balkan side will at least avoid defeat in this fixture, though it is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair.

Betting Recommendation

In all three of Latvia’s matches and both of Serbia’s encounters in this qualifying round, no more than 3 goals have been scored. A similar pattern of low scoring has been observed in 9 of Latvia’s last 11 home matches in this tournament, as well as in 13 of Serbia’s last 15 away World Cup qualifiers. Therefore, a compelling choice for the upcoming fixture is to predict “Total Goals Under 3”.

Author: Oleksandr Oleksenko