Match Overview

This upcoming fixture marks the 5th round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign, featuring Kazakhstan against Wales. The highly anticipated match is scheduled for September 4th at the Astana Arena. This article provides a comprehensive prediction, betting insights, current odds, and key statistics for the Kazakhstan vs Wales encounter.

Kazakhstan Team Analysis

Kazakhstan’s Current Form

Ali Aliyev’s side suffered a 0-1 home defeat to North Macedonia in their last outing, marking their fifth loss in the past six World Cup qualifying matches. A concerning trend for Kazakhstan is their inability to find the net, having failed to score in four of these fixtures. With just three points accumulated from three games, the team currently occupies the fourth position in their qualification group.

Key Statistics for Kazakhstan

• The national team has failed to secure a victory in regular time in their last 11 home World Cup qualifiers, recording 4 draws and 7 defeats.
• They have also struggled offensively at home in this qualifying campaign, failing to score within 90 minutes in four of their last five matches.
• Defensively, Kazakhstan has shown vulnerabilities, allowing at least two goals in regular time in six of their last eight home World Cup qualification games.

Kazakhstan’s Projected Line-up (5-4-1)

Temirlan Anarbekov – Erkin Tapalov, Nuraly Alip, Sultanbek Astanov, Sergey Maly, Yan Vorogovsky – Islam Chesnokov, Serikzhan Muzhikov, Maksim Samorodov, Ramazan Orazov – Dastan Satpayev.

Team News: Kazakhstan Injuries

Key player updates for Kazakhstan include the absence of first-choice goalkeeper Alexander Zarutsky due to injury, who was not called up for this fixture. Midfielder Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov also remains out of the squad with a sustained injury.

Wales Team Analysis

Wales’ Recent Performance

Craig Bellamy’s squad suffered a 3-4 away defeat against Belgium in their last match, bringing an end to their impressive 12-game unbeaten run in World Cup qualifiers, which included 8 wins and 4 draws. This marked the first time since 2012 that the Dragons conceded more than three goals in a World Cup qualifier. However, on a positive note, Wales managed to score three goals for the third time in their last four matches of this qualifying campaign. Currently, Wales occupies the second spot in the group table with seven points after four fixtures.

Key Statistics for Wales

• The national team has maintained a strong away record in World Cup qualification, avoiding defeat in regular time in 10 of their last 12 matches on the road (4 wins, 6 draws).
• Both teams found the back of the net within 90 minutes in five of Wales’ last six away qualifiers in this campaign.
• Furthermore, the Welsh side has demonstrated a tendency to score early, finding the net in the first half in five of their last six away World Cup qualification matches.

Wales’ Projected Line-up (4-5-1)

Karl Darlow – Ben Davies, Joe Rodon, Chris Mepham, Neco Williams – David Brooks, Sorba Thomas, Jordan James, Harry Wilson – Brennan Johnson.

Referee Profile

Match Official: Alejandro Hernandez

The match will be officiated by Spanish referee Alejandro Hernandez.

Referee Statistics

Here are Alejandro Hernandez’s officiating statistics from international matches during the 2024/25–2025/26 seasons:

• Matches officiated: 11
• Yellow cards issued (including second yellows): 29
• Average yellow cards per match: 2.6
• Red cards issued: 1
• Average fouls per match: 20
• Penalty decisions: 27% of matches

Kazakhstan vs Wales Match Prediction

Kazakhstan’s Home Struggles

Kazakhstan consistently finds it challenging to compete for top positions in World Cup qualifiers, and their home form has been particularly disappointing. Over their last 11 home matches in this qualifying campaign, the national team has not secured a single victory, enduring seven defeats in the process. Additionally, goal-scoring has been a significant hurdle for Kazakhstan, as they failed to score in four of their last five home World Cup qualifying fixtures.

Wales’ Strong Away Record

Conversely, Wales boasts a commendable away record in World Cup qualification. Over their last 12 away fixtures, the national team has only suffered two defeats, both against strong Belgium side (registering 4 wins and 6 draws). However, it’s worth noting that Wales’ attacking output in away qualifiers is not always prolific; they have managed to score more than one goal in just six of their last sixteen away matches.

Final Prediction and Bet

Considering the analysis, I anticipate that Wales will avoid defeat in this fixture, and I also foresee a match with a limited number of goals. My final prediction for this game is a “Double Chance (X2) combined with Under 2.5 goals”, which typically offers odds around 1.96.