Nagoya Grampus — Cerezo Osaka : Match Preview and Prediction for October 04,2025

Nagoya’s Recent Form & Defensive Woes

Nagoya Grampus enters this fixture on the back of a devastating 0-4 home loss to Kashima. This result isn’t an isolated incident; it underscores an concerning pattern. The team currently holds the unenviable third position in the league for most goals conceded at home over their last five matches, having shipped a significant 12 goals.

Impact of Matheus’ Return

While the team has failed to find the net in their most recent two outings, a crucial element is set to alter their offensive dynamics: the return of forward Matheus. After a three-month spell on the sidelines due to injury, his presence could be a game-changer. Notably, it was Matheus’s decisive goal that salvaged a draw for Nagoya in their previous clash with Cerezo.

High-Scoring Home Encounters

Nagoya’s home game statistics strongly suggest high-scoring affairs. In an impressive 15 out of their last 20 matches played at home, the total goal count has reached at least three. Furthermore, Nagoya stands second in the J.League for the highest number of games exceeding 2.5 goals, with 20 of their 32 fixtures proving to be high-scoring.

Cerezo Osaka’s Away Goal-Fest

For enthusiasts of high-scoring football, Cerezo Osaka’s away fixtures are consistently entertaining. Their last seven road games have unfailingly witnessed a minimum of three goals. This isn’t merely happenstance but a distinct playing philosophy, consistently reinforced by their season-long statistics.

Potent Attack, Leaky Defense on the Road

Cerezo Osaka boasts the second-highest tally of away goals in the league, having bagged 25 goals across 15 matches on their travels. This attacking prowess, however, comes with a significant caveat that favors a high-scoring prediction: Cerezo also holds the unenviable position of second-most goals conceded away from home, having allowed opponents to score 29 times in those same 15 fixtures.

Recent Results and Defensive Vulnerabilities

Recent results underscore this trend, including 1-2 and 1-3 losses to Kyoto and Kashima respectively, alongside an exhilarating 4-2 triumph over Avispa. The team’s defensive unit frequently falters, as evidenced in their last outing where both goals were conceded from set-piece situations. While the availability of their pivotal attacking midfielder, Lucas Fernandes, who has netted 9 goals this season, is currently uncertain, the squad’s offensive capabilities are not solely reliant on a single individual.