Match Preview

The fifth-round fixture of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification tournament, featuring the national teams of Italy and Estonia, is scheduled for September 5th. The match will take place at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, offering a crucial encounter for both sides in their qualifying campaigns.

Italy’s Current Form and Group Standing

After a notable 0:3 away loss to Norway in their last outing, the Italian squad rebounded with a solid 2:0 home victory against Moldova. This win was significant as it broke a four-match winless streak for the team in World Cup qualifiers, which had seen them record two draws and two defeats. It also marked the first time Italy found the net in four previous World Cup qualification matches. Furthermore, it was only the second instance in their last eight qualification games where they scored more than a single goal. Italy currently holds the third position in Group I of the tournament standings.

Italy’s Recent Coaching Change

A change in leadership has occurred, with Gennaro Gattuso taking over as the new head coach, succeeding Luciano Spalletti.

Statistical Highlights for Italy

• In 6 of Italy’s last 7 World Cup qualification matches, at least one team failed to score.
• Eight of the national team’s last 9 home games in World Cup qualifiers have featured no more than two goals.
• Italy has opened the scoring in 8 of their last 11 home fixtures in this tournament.

Italy’s Probable Starting XI (4-4-2)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco – Nicolo Barella, Nicolo Rovella, Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi – Giacomo Raspadori, Mateo Retegui.

Italy Squad Updates

Defender Alessandro Florenzi has concluded his international career with the national team.

Estonia’s Campaign Overview

Jürgen Henn’s side experienced a 0:1 home defeat against Norway in their most recent fixture. This loss marked their third in the current qualifying cycle and their sixth in the last seven tournament matches, with only a single victory to their name. Additionally, Estonia’s three-match scoring run in World Cup qualifiers was brought to an end. The national team has also conceded goals in their last seven World Cup qualification games. With a total of three points, Estonia currently occupies the fourth spot in the group standings.

Statistical Highlights for Estonia

• Estonia has conceded at least two goals in 5 of their last 6 World Cup qualification matches.
• The team has failed to secure an away win in 5 of their last 6 World Cup qualifiers (recording 1 draw and 4 losses).
• The Estonian national team has managed to score in 5 of their last 7 away games in this tournament.

Estonia’s Probable Starting XI (4-5-1)

Karl Hein – Michael Schønning-Larsen, Maksim Paskotsi, Märten Kuusk, Joonas Tamm – Markus Soomets, Rocco Robert Shein, Konstantin Vassiljev, Mattias Käit, Henri Anier – Rauno Sappinen.

Referee Assignment

The match will be officiated by João Pinheiro from Portugal.

Referee’s Statistical Profile

Matches officiated – 17 (International matches, 2024/25 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;

Average yellow cards per match – 3;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties awarded – 24%.

Italy vs Estonia: Betting Forecast

The Italian team was in clear need of a jolt after a series of underwhelming results in competitive fixtures. The national football federation opted for a change, with Gennaro Gattuso stepping in to replace Luciano Spalletti. While Spalletti’s final match saw a 2-0 victory over a modest Moldova side, Gattuso will require time to fully implement his tactical vision. Nevertheless, Italy is widely expected to comfortably defeat their upcoming opponents, given the significant disparity in team quality.

Expected Match Dynamics and Goal Totals

Estonia’s primary goal will undoubtedly be to prevent the hosts from scoring. Although the Baltic nation has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven World Cup qualifiers, they tend to avoid catastrophic defensive breakdowns. The team has not conceded more than three goals in any of their previous nine matches in this competition. For Italy, a high-scoring spectacle is not typically anticipated; even at home, they have scored more than twice in only 1 of their last 9 World Cup qualification matches. With a new coach who is not renowned for an overtly attacking style, a flood of goals from Italy seems improbable.

Final Match Prediction

The home side is projected to secure three points in a relatively low-scoring encounter. My prediction: “Italy Win and Under 4.5 Goals” with odds of 1.68

Author: Alexey Tarabrin