Empoli — Monza : Match Preview and Prediction for October 01,2025

Empoli’s Disappointing Season Start

Let’s begin with the hosts. Empoli is one of the teams that have been a major disappointment at the start of the season. After being relegated from Serie A, they were expected to contend for the top spots, but instead, they’ve only managed 5 points from five matches, placing them in the lower half of the table. The quality of their play leaves much to be desired, and coach Guido Pagliuca is already under significant pressure.

Defensive Woes and Concentration Lapses

The team’s primary issue lies in their defense. Conceding eleven goals in five matches is among the worst records in the league. It’s particularly telling that 4 of those 11 goals were conceded in the final 15 minutes of matches, indicating significant problems with concentration. Coach Pagliuca himself admits that the team experiences “blackout moments” that prove costly. After such a dismal start, the only logical solution is to tighten up the defense and play with maximum caution.

Offensive Struggles and Tactical Approach

However, don’t be quick to assume that a leaky defense will lead to a goal fest. Empoli’s attack is another story entirely. In terms of shots on goal, the team ranks 19th out of 20 in the league. For shots from outside the box, they are dead last. Before the match against Monza, Pagliuca explicitly stated: “This will be a game where a single moment can decide everything, and the battle will come to the forefront.” This is a clear hint at a closed, gritty style of football, not a goal-scoring spectacle.

Monza’s Performance and Low-Scoring Tendency

Now, turning to the visitors. Monza’s situation isn’t much better – 7 points after five games and also considered one of the early season’s biggest disappointments. However, for our prediction, Monza presents a clear trend. Five out of their six official matches this season have ended with an “under total” scoreline. In their Coppa Italia matches against Frosinone, as well as league games against Mantova, Sampdoria, and Padova, only a single goal was scored in each.

Defensive Strength vs. Offensive Weakness

The team’s Serie B statistics only reinforce this pattern. Monza boasts the third-best defense in the league, having conceded just 4 goals. Simultaneously, they also possess the third-worst attack, with only 4 goals scored. The team plays an extremely closed and pragmatic style of football. Their last match saw them lose 0-1 at home to Padova, which perfectly fits the overall picture of their attacking struggles.

Historical Struggles and Key Absences

Moreover, there’s a historical fact that cannot be ignored: Monza has failed to score at Empoli’s home ground in official matches for a staggering 382 minutes. This goal drought away at Empoli dates back to 2000. Adding to this, one of the team’s key midfielders, Matteo Pessina, will miss the game due to injury, which will further weaken their already modest attacking potential.