Match Overview and Preview

The 5th round match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification tournament, featuring the national teams of Iceland and Azerbaijan, is scheduled for September 5 at the “Wroclaw” stadium in Poland. This comprehensive preview delves into the Iceland vs Azerbaijan encounter, offering a detailed analysis and forecast, alongside key statistics.

Iceland’s Recent Qualification Struggles

The Icelandic national team experienced a challenging campaign in the last World Cup 2022 qualifiers. They concluded their group stage in 5th position, managing to finish above only Liechtenstein. Their sole victories in that qualification cycle were achieved against the microstate in both fixtures; otherwise, they recorded 5 defeats and 3 draws. Notably, Iceland displayed defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match.

Key Statistics for Iceland’s Qualification Form

• The team has failed to secure a win in 6 of their last 7 World Cup qualification matches, accumulating 3 draws and 3 losses.
• At home, Iceland has demonstrated greater resilience, remaining undefeated in 11 of their last 13 World Cup qualifiers, with a record of 8 wins and 3 draws.
• In 7 of Iceland’s most recent 9 home fixtures in this tournament, at least one of the participating teams did not score.

Expected Iceland Starting Lineup (4-3-3)

Hakon Rafn Valdimarsson – Sverrir Ingi Ingason, Victor Pálsson, Logi Tómasson, Daníel Leo Grétarsson – Stefán Teitur Þórðarson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Þórir Jóhann Helgason – Albert Guðmundsson, Sævar Atli Magnússon, Andri Guðjohnsen.

Azerbaijan’s Qualification Challenges

The Azerbaijani national team managed to secure a mere 1 point in the previous qualifying round. Across 8 group matches, they suffered 7 defeats, with their only draw coming against Ireland. Furthermore, in 6 of their last 7 matches in this tournament, Azerbaijan conceded at least 2 goals. It is noteworthy that Azerbaijan has never before garnered such a low points total in a European World Cup qualification campaign.

Azerbaijan’s Current Performance and Away Record

• Azerbaijan’s winless streak in World Cup qualifiers now stands at 10 matches, comprising 1 draw and 9 losses.
• A minimum of 3 goals were scored in 9 of the team’s last 11 matches in this competition.
• On the road, the Azerbaijanis have not achieved a victory in 8 consecutive World Cup qualification games, recording 2 draws and 6 defeats.

Expected Azerbaijan Starting Lineup (4-3-3)

Rza Jafarov – Elvin Badalov, Jalal Huseynov, Anton Krivotsyuk, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Ozan Kökçü, Gismat Aliyev, Emin Mahmudov – Mahir Emreli, Renat Dadashov, Khayal Aliyev.

Match Official Information

Referee: Sander van der Eijk (Netherlands)

Total Matches Officiated – 12 (International fixtures, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow Cards Shown (including second yellow) – 36;

Average Yellow Cards Per Match – 3;

Red Cards Shown – 2;

Average Fouls Per Match – 25;

Penalties Awarded – 25%.

Iceland vs Azerbaijan Betting Prediction

The squad under Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s guidance enters this upcoming fixture as the undisputed favorites. The Azerbaijani side has consistently underperformed in recent qualification tournaments and struggles to compete effectively even against mid-table European teams. Azerbaijan’s away form is particularly concerning, having suffered 13 defeats in their last 15 away matches across World Cup and European Championship qualifiers.

Conversely, Iceland demonstrates strong performances on their home ground. In their last 13 home matches, the national team has only succumbed to Germany and Romania, securing 8 victories and 3 draws. Moreover, when Iceland emerges victorious, they typically score a minimum of two goals. I anticipate a victory for the home side, especially as securing his inaugural official win as the national team’s head coach will be a significant milestone for Arnar Gunnlaugsson.

Main Betting Pick

My prediction for this match is a handicap bet on “Iceland (-1)”.

Olexandr Oleksenko