The La Liga matchday 1 fixture between Girona and Rayo Vallecano will take place on August 15 at the Montilivi Stadium. Here’s a detailed prediction, betting odds, and statistics for the Girona vs Rayo Vallecano match.
Girona Team Analysis
Recent Form and Season Overview for Girona
The Catalans finished the previous championship in a disappointing 16th position, only one point above the relegation zone. Míchel Sánchez’s side lost exactly half of their La Liga matches in 2024/25 (only relegated Las Palmas and Valladolid had more defeats). Additionally, Girona conceded 60 goals, which was the third-worst defensive record in La Liga. It’s worth noting that the season before, the club secured a high 3rd place in the championship, marking their debut in European competitions. Their decline in performance stemmed not only from their Champions League commitments but also from losing almost all their key players before the start of last season.
Offseason Transfers for Girona
During the offseason, the club did not make significant acquisitions. Only the loan of midfielder Thomas Lemar from Atlético Madrid is noteworthy.
Girona Key Statistics
- In their last 16 championship matches, the Catalans have secured only 2 wins (4 draws and 10 losses).
- At home, Girona have not won in 7 of their 8 previous La Liga home matches (2 draws and 5 losses).
- The team has not scored more than 1 goal in their last 6 home games in La Liga.
Predicted Girona Lineup (4-4-2)
Paulo Gazzaniga – Daley Blind, Ladislav Krejci, Alejandro Francés, Arnau Martínez – Yangel Herrera, Iván Martín, Jhon Solís, Yaser Asprilla, Viktor Tsygankov – Cristhian Stuani.
Rayo Vallecano Team Analysis
Season Performance and European Qualification for Rayo Vallecano
The Madrid side has continuously played in La Liga since 2021. During this period, the team finished in the bottom half of the table three times, but last season they managed to secure a commendable 8th place, which qualifies them for the Conference League. Iñigo Pérez’s squad managed to clinch a European spot thanks to a 5-match unbeaten streak at the end of the championship (3 wins and 2 draws). Rayo Vallecano also ranked sixth in the league for away performance. Furthermore, the club conceded only 19 goals away from home, which was the third-best defensive record in away matches in La Liga.
Rayo Vallecano Transfer Activity
This summer, the team was not very active in the transfer market. There were no sales or major purchases. The arrival of defender Luiz Felipe from Marseille as a free agent is worth mentioning.
Rayo Vallecano Key Statistics
- The team has failed to win in 11 of their last 15 La Liga matches (5 draws and 6 losses).
- At least two goals were scored in 10 of Rayo Vallecano’s last 13 La Liga matches.
- The Madrid side has scored in 10 of their last 12 away matches in La Liga.
Predicted Rayo Vallecano Lineup (4-4-2)
Augusto Batalla – Florian Lejeune, Andrei Ratiu, Iván Balliu, Alfonso Espino – Pathé Ciss, Isi Palazón, Óscar Valentín, Unai López – Adrián Embarba, Jorge de Frutos.
Match Official Profile
Javier Alberola Rojas (Spain)
Referee Statistics (2024/25 La Liga)
Matches – 20 (La Liga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 60;
Average yellow cards per match – 3;
Red cards shown – 5;
Average fouls per match – 27;
Penalties awarded – 35%.
Match Prediction: Girona vs Rayo Vallecano
Offensive and Defensive Analysis
In the upcoming match, we should expect both teams to score. Both teams had roughly equal attacking statistics last season, averaging just over 1 goal per game. Both opponents also had defensive problems, especially the Catalans, who conceded 30 goals in 19 La Liga matches at home in 2024/25. However, Míchel Sánchez’s team also scored frequently at Montilivi – an average of 1.4 times per game.
Goal-Scoring Potential
The Madrid side has scored almost regularly on the road – in their last 12 away matches in La Liga, they failed to score only against Atlético and Barcelona. Given Girona’s defensive issues, they are very likely to concede against Rayo Vallecano. However, Girona themselves will not be without goals, as they have consistently scored in their first home match at Montilivi for the past three seasons, often netting at least three goals.
Recommended Bet
My prediction is “Both Teams to Score – Yes” with odds of
1.85
Author: Oleksandr Oleksenko
Mark Thompson