Dynamo Dresden — Paderborn 07 : Match Preview and Prediction for October 25,2025

Dynamo Dresden’s Current Form

Let’s analyze Dynamo Dresden. While they are currently in 16th place with a six-match winless streak, a closer look reveals a resilient side. Four draws in their last five outings indicate a team that, far from collapsing, is fiercely battling for every point in each encounter.

Recent Performance and xG Dominance

In their last fixture against Preussen Munster, Dresden twice held the lead. The eventual 2-2 draw was a disappointing outcome, largely due to an unfortunate own goal conceded in the 85th minute. The xG (expected goals) statistics for that match stood at 1.41 to 0.71 in Dynamo’s favor, clearly indicating they created more chances and were the sharper side offensively.

Potent Home Attack

Dynamo’s attack is undeniably effective. The team is among the league leaders for scoring at least two goals, achieving this feat in 6 out of 9 matches. High-scoring results like 3-3 against Karlsruhe and 2-2 with Hannover underscore their offensive capability. They possess the ability to score against any opponent, particularly when playing at home.

The Power of Rudolf Harbig Stadion

This brings us to Dynamo’s significant advantage: their stadium. The Rudolf Harbig Stadion is expected to be a sell-out, with over 30,000 passionate fans generating an intense atmosphere that few visiting teams can withstand. Paderborn’s coach, Ralf Kettemann, explicitly warned his players, stating, “The atmosphere in Dresden can turn a game around.” This is not an idle comment but a clear acknowledgment of the “twelfth man’s” profound influence.

Addressing Defensive Weaknesses

Coach Thomas Stamm openly discusses the team’s defensive issues, referring to them as a “construction site.” This transparency indicates that errors are being actively addressed and not overlooked. The team is well aware of where improvements are needed, and a home match provides an ideal opportunity to demonstrate the fruits of this ongoing work.

Paderborn’s Recent Form and Defensive Concerns

Now, let’s turn our attention to Paderborn. Their impressive five-match winning streak and third-place standing sound formidable. However, a closer examination of their last game against Arminia reveals some vulnerabilities. Despite a 4-3 victory, they conceded three goals and twice fell behind during the match.

High xGA Points to Defensive Issues

In that particular encounter, Paderborn’s expected goals against (xGA) statistic was 2.75. This figure clearly indicates that Arminia deserved to score nearly three goals, which they indeed did. Paderborn’s defense faltered, allowing their opponents far too many opportunities in front of goal.

Facing a Familiar Threat: Mika Baur

While former Dynamo player Mika Baur is in excellent form for Paderborn, he is intimately known in Dresden. Coach Thomas Stamm, who previously worked with Baur, jokingly remarked, “He might not have his best game on Saturday.” This suggests Dynamo has a specific strategy in place to neutralize his impact.

Defensive Setback: Hoffmeier’s Absence

Adding to their concerns, Paderborn will be without a key defensive player. Marcel Hoffmeier, a regular starter, is unavailable. This absence creates another vulnerability in their defensive setup, which already appeared unconvincing in their previous match.