Match Preview: Georgia vs Bulgaria

Anticipation builds for the 6th-round clash in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, as Georgia hosts Bulgaria on September 7 at the iconic Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi. This encounter promises a compelling battle, and we delve into a comprehensive match preview, offering our expert prediction, betting insights, competitive odds, and crucial statistics.

Team Analysis: Georgia

Georgia’s Qualification Journey So Far

Under the guidance of Willy Sagnol, Georgia’s qualification campaign kicked off with a narrow 2-3 home defeat to Turkey. Their historical record in World Cup qualifiers reveals a struggle for consistency, with only two victories in their last 26 matches (8 draws, 16 losses). The recent fixture against Turkey marked a rare occasion, only the second time in 14 previous World Cup qualification outings, where they conceded more than two goals. Encouragingly, the Georgian side has found the net twice in each of their last three European qualifiers. Currently, they hold the third position in the group, edging out Bulgaria on goal difference.

Key Statistics for Georgia’s Home Form

• Georgia has struggled to secure victories at home in World Cup qualifiers, failing to win in 12 of their last 13 matches on home soil (3 draws, 9 losses).
• Offensive output at home has been limited, with the team scoring more than one goal in only 2 of their last 14 home Euro qualifiers.
• Despite home challenges, the Georgians have shown a pattern of conceding a specific range of goals away, allowing exactly 1 or 2 goals in regular time in 8 of their last 11 away World Cup qualification fixtures.

Projected Georgia Starting XI (4-4-2)*

Expected Lineup for Georgia

Giorgi Mamardashvili – Otar Kakabadze, Saba Goglichidze, Guram Kashia, Luka Lochoshvili – Zuriko Davitashvili, Anzor Mekvabishvili, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Giorgi Tsitaishvili – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Giorgi Mikautadze.

Coaching Staff Update

A significant factor for Georgia will be the absence of head coach Willy Sagnol, who is suspended for this crucial fixture, potentially impacting tactical decisions from the sidelines.

Team Analysis: Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s Current Form and Group Standing

Ilian Iliev’s Bulgarian squad enters this match on the back of a disappointing 0-3 home defeat to Spain in the previous round. This result extends their winless streak to ten matches out of their last twelve in European qualifiers (3 draws, 7 losses), highlighting a persistent struggle for form. Notably, Bulgaria has suffered significant defeats in their two most recent World Cup qualifiers, failing to score in either match. With no points accumulated so far, the national team currently languishes at the bottom of their group standings.

Bulgaria’s Away Performance & Noteworthy Trends

• Bulgaria’s away record in World Cup qualifiers is concerning, with no wins in their last ten away fixtures (3 draws, 7 losses).
• Their scoring on the road has been modest, netting exactly one goal in 7 of their last 10 previous away Euro qualifiers.
• A curious trend involving Georgia’s away matches: both teams have scored in regular time in 8 of Georgia’s last 11 away World Cup qualification fixtures.

Projected Bulgaria Starting XI (4-3-3)*

Expected Lineup for Bulgaria

Svetoslav Vutsov – Fabian Nurnberger, Anton Nedyalkov, Emil Tsenov, Kristian Dimitrov – Ilia Gruev, Ivaylo Chochev, Vasil Panayotov – Nikolay Minkov, Aleksandar Kolev, Radoslav Kirilov.

Match Official

Referee Appointment

Glenn Nyberg (Sweden)

Glenn Nyberg’s Refereeing Statistics

Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 49;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.3;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 20%.

Match Prediction: Georgia vs Bulgaria

Georgia’s Home Offense & Defense

While Georgia’s home record doesn’t always guarantee victory, their proactive attacking approach consistently yields goals. In their last ten home European qualifiers, they have found the back of the net in seven, demonstrating offensive capability. Recent home displays include a total of four goals against formidable opponents like Sweden and Turkey in their last two matches. However, defensive solidity remains a concern, as they’ve kept a clean sheet in only one of their last eleven home World Cup qualifiers.

Bulgaria’s Offensive Intent on the Road

Bulgaria’s away record in qualifiers is generally poor, yet they are not a team that parks the bus, preferring an expansive, creative style. In their last 11 World Cup qualification away fixtures, they have failed to score in just three matches, showing an ability to threaten even against top-tier teams like Italy, France, and the Netherlands. Despite their attacking efforts, defensive vulnerabilities are evident, with only one clean sheet in their last 13 away World Cup qualifiers.

Final Prediction: Both Teams to Score

Considering the attacking tendencies and defensive frailties of both sides, an exciting match with goals at both ends seems highly probable. Therefore, my final prediction is for “Both Teams to Score – Yes”, offered at competitive odds of 2.11

Lineup Disclaimer

* Note: The projected starting lineups for each team are based on their previous fixture in this qualification tournament.