Mexico — Japan : Match Preview and Prediction for September 07,2025

Aguirre’s Strategic Vision for Mexico

Javier Aguirre is at the helm of the national team for the third time, and his primary objective isn’t to dazzle in friendly matches but to systematically prepare for the home World Cup. “El Vasco” explicitly states that these games are crucial for scouting players and making valuable decisions for the future. It’s not about achieving crushing victories, but rather about team building, finding optimal connections, and testing tactical schemes.

Youth Development Prioritized Over Immediate Results

Observe the squad selection carefully. The young prodigy Gilberto Mora, who has all of Mexico talking, has not been called up for this training camp. Aguirre personally decided that it’s more important for the 16-year-old player to participate in the Youth World Cup. This sends a clear signal: the result in a friendly match is secondary; long-term development and adherence to processes come first. The attacking potential, without this bright talent, is certainly diminished for this particular game.

Lozano’s Return: Focus on Discipline and Team Cohesion

Yes, Hirving Lozano has returned to the national squad, but there are nuances here too. Before the call-up, Aguirre had a serious conversation with him about discipline and order. The coach is building a structure where not only individual brilliance but also teamwork is paramount. Integrating such a prominent player after a long absence requires time, and it’s unlikely we’ll see perfect understanding from the first whistle.

Mexico’s Pragmatic Approach: Gold Cup Success and Low-Scoring Trend

The Mexicans won the Gold Cup, but let’s examine how they achieved it. In the playoffs, they secured clean sheet victories against Honduras (1-0) and Saudi Arabia (2-0). Even in the final against the USA, where the score was 2-1, Aguirre’s team’s expected goals (xG) stood at a modest 1.26. These are figures indicative of pragmatic, rather than relentlessly attacking, football. There was also a goalless draw with Costa Rica in the group stage. Fact: in 14 out of Mexico’s previous 20 home matches, the total of 2.5 goals was not exceeded.

Japan’s Tactical Evolution Under Moriyasu

The Japanese national team has long moved beyond simply discipline and speed. They are now the best team in Asia, boasting a roster full of players from European leagues. Coach Hajime Moriyasu, who has led the team since 2018, has built a tactically flexible and intelligent squad. He speaks with great respect about Aguirre, noting that he left his mark on Japanese football. From coaches like these, one should not expect wide-open play with no regard for their own goal.

Ritsu Doan’s Pragmatic Mindset

The mood among the Japanese players is best captured by the words of one of their leaders, Ritsu Doan. He openly stated that the team would not stubbornly maintain possession if it isn’t yielding results. “You need to have the courage to abandon your style if it’s not working. There will be times when we have to defend,” the player commented. This is the philosophy of pragmatists who are not coming to put on a show but to test their strength against a serious opponent.

Low-Scoring Trends in Japan’s Key Matches

Japan’s recent results against teams of comparable class only corroborate this thesis. A 1-0 victory over South Korea with a meager xG (0.17), a 0-1 defeat to Australia, and a goalless draw with Saudi Arabia. While there have been dominant victories against admittedly weaker opponents, in clashes with well-organized national teams, the “Samurai Blue” play extremely cautiously and avoid taking unnecessary risks. Statistics confirm this: in 5 out of Japan’s last 7 matches, more than two goals were not scored.