Match Overview

Fredrikstad Team Analysis

Andreas Hagen’s squad achieved a respectable outcome in the first leg. Playing away in London against a Premier League representative, who had recently won their country’s Super Cup, they suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat. The Norwegians spent almost the entire match defending but conceded only a single goal. If the team can defeat the English side by at least a two-goal margin in this return fixture, they will make history by reaching the main round of a European competition for the first time.

Key Statistics for Fredrikstad

• The Scandinavian side has failed to win in regular time in 13 of their last 15 official matches (4 draws and 9 losses).
• No more than two goals were scored in regular time in 7 of Fredrikstad’s last 10 official matches.
• The Norwegians have avoided defeat in regular time in 14 of their last 18 official home games (10 wins and 4 draws).

Fredrikstad’s Expected Lineup (4-5-1)

Martin Børsheim – Daniel Eid, Maxwell Woledzi, Stian Molde, Ulrik Fredriksen – Oscar Jøndal, Patrick Metcalfe, Sondre Sørløkk, Leonard Owusu, Solomon Owusu – Emil Holten.

Crystal Palace Team Analysis

In their inaugural European club match, the Londoners were unable to fully capitalize on their overwhelming advantage throughout the game, securing only a minimal victory. At home, the club enjoyed 74% possession and attempted 25 shots, but managed to hit the target only 5 times. Now, to qualify for the main round of a European competition for the first time, the English side simply needs to avoid defeat in Norway.

Key Statistics for Crystal Palace

• Crystal Palace’s unbeaten run in regular time in official matches extends to 12 games (5 wins and 7 draws).
• No more than two goals were scored in regular time in 7 of the Londoners’ last 9 official games.
• In their last 7 official away fixtures, the club has secured only 1 victory (4 draws and 2 losses).

Crystal Palace’s Expected Lineup (4-4-2)

Dean Henderson – Borna Sosa, Daniel Muñoz, Maxence Lacroix, Marc Guéhi – Adam Wharton, Jairo Riedewald, Jefferson Lerma, Will Hughes – Jean-Philippe Mateta, Ismaïla Sarr.

Match Referee Spotlight

Kristo Tohver (Estonia)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 7 (International fixtures, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;

Average yellow cards per match – 5.6;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties awarded – 57%.

Fredrikstad vs Crystal Palace Match Prediction

The first match was entirely dictated by the English side, but they failed to convert their potential and numerous opportunities. In the return leg, it’s unlikely that either team’s tactical approach will change significantly: the Norwegians will again focus primarily on defense, while the Londoners will maintain their attacking stance. I believe the Scandinavians will struggle to avoid a heavy defeat this time, as they need to overturn the deficit, which will necessitate adopting a more aggressive attacking strategy, inevitably leaving them exposed. This is a situation the visitors will surely exploit.

Fredrikstad, it’s worth noting, lost both matches in the previous Europa League stage to Midtjylland, each by a two-goal margin. The team is also in poor form in their domestic league, having secured only 2 victories in their last 16 official matches. In contrast, Crystal Palace has achieved 7 clean sheet victories by a two or three-goal margin in their last 13 away games in the Premier League and FA Cup, drew 4 times, and only suffered defeats against Newcastle and Manchester City. The quality of Premier League teams is simply not comparable to clubs from the Eliteserien.

Final Bet Recommendation

My prediction is “Crystal Palace with a (-1) handicap” with odds of 1.62