Match Overview: France vs. Iceland Clash

This comprehensive preview delves into the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2026 qualification Group D fixture between France and Iceland, set to take place on September 9th at the iconic Parc des Princes stadium in Paris. We’ll analyze the teams, explore betting opportunities, and review crucial statistics to inform your predictions.

France’s Dominant Qualification Campaign

France has kicked off their FIFA World Cup 2026 qualification journey with an emphatic statement, already overcoming their primary contender for Group D’s top spot. Their recent away fixture saw Didier Deschamps’ formidable squad dispatch Ukraine with a commanding 2-0 victory. This impressive performance extended their flawless qualification run to four consecutive wins, each delivered with a minimum two-goal advantage and an impenetrable defense.

Key Statistics: French Performance

• Les Bleus are currently enjoying a remarkable 13-match unbeaten run in this competition, tallying 9 victories and 4 draws.
• A recurring theme in their recent World Cup qualifiers is a low-scoring affair, with fewer than three goals netted in 8 of their last 9 outings.
• On home soil in the European qualifiers, France boasts an impressive record of 8 wins and 3 draws from their last 11 fixtures.

Predicted France Lineup (4-2-3-1)*

Here’s the probable starting XI for France (4-2-3-1)*: Mike Maignan in goal; a defensive line featuring Lucas Digne, Jules Kounde, Ibrahima Konate, and Dayot Upamecano; a midfield pivot of Manu Kone and Aurelien Tchouameni; an attacking trio of Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise, and Desire Doue; with the prolific Kylian Mbappe leading the line.

Iceland’s Surprising Ascent

Under the guidance of Arnar Grunnlaugsson, Iceland has emerged as an unexpected early leader in their qualification group. Their recent home fixture saw them deliver a dominant 5-0 rout against Azerbaijan. This impressive result comes after a challenging run of three consecutive losses in official competitions (Nations League). Notably, Iceland has shown resilience in their World Cup qualifiers, avoiding defeat in 4 of their last 5 matches, securing 2 wins and 2 draws.

Iceland’s Away Form and Goal Statistics

• A notable trend in Iceland’s recent World Cup qualifiers is a propensity for goals, with at least three scored in 5 of their last 7 games.
• However, their away record in this tournament is less convincing, featuring just 3 wins from their last 13 matches, alongside 4 draws and 6 defeats.
• Despite this, they have shown defensive solidity on the road, conceding no more than two goals in 10 of their last 12 away World Cup qualification fixtures.

Predicted Iceland Lineup (4-3-3)*

The anticipated starting formation for Iceland (4-3-3)* includes: Elias Rafn Olafsson between the sticks; a back four of Sverrir Ingason, Victor Palsson, Mikael Ellertsson, and Daniel Leo Gretarsson; a midfield trio of Stefan Thordarson, Isak Johannesson, and Hakon Haraldsson; and a forward line composed of Albert Gudmundsson, Jon Thorsteinsson, and Andri Gudjohnsen.

Match Official: Antonio Nobre

Antonio Nobre (Portugal)

Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 37;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 24;

Penalties awarded – 45%.

Match Prediction: France vs. Iceland

Historically, these two nations have faced each other three times in official competitions over the last decade, with France emerging victorious on every occasion, including two emphatic wins. However, I anticipate a more resilient performance from Iceland in this upcoming fixture. Their current squad shows promising potential and possesses the quality to challenge the group favorites, even contending for the top spot, making a heavy defeat less likely.

Betting Tip and Rationale

Delving into recent form, Iceland has proven remarkably tough to beat heavily on the road in World Cup qualifiers, suffering only a single comprehensive loss in their last 16 away fixtures (against Germany). Conversely, France has not secured a victory by a margin of three or more goals in 5 of their previous 6 home matches in this competition. Considering these statistics, I lean towards backing the visitors with a +2.5 handicap for this encounter.

Final Prediction

My definitive prediction for this match is ‘Iceland with a +2.5 Asian Handicap’ with odds of 2.02

Analyst’s Insight

Author: Олександр Олексенко

Squad Information Note

* Please note: The listed starting lineups for each team reflect their formations from their most recent fixture in this tournament.