Match Overview

The Matchday 9 fixture of the PARI First League (FNL) between “Fakel” and “Arsenal Tula” is scheduled for September 8 at the Fakel Stadium. Here’s our comprehensive prediction, odds analysis, and statistical breakdown for the “Fakel” – “Arsenal Tula” encounter.

Fakel’s Current Form

The Voronezh side commenced their season with an impressive run of six consecutive victories, yet they’ve stumbled in their two most recent outings, dropping crucial points. Following a defeat to Ural, Igor Shalimov’s squad settled for a 1-1 draw against Chelyabinsk. It’s noteworthy that Fakel has netted exactly one goal in the FNL 2025/26 season on six separate occasions. Conversely, they’ve conceded only four goals in total, making them the most defensively robust team in the competition. Despite their solid defense, the Voronezh club currently occupies the 2nd position in the overall standings.

Key Fakel Statistics

• At least one opponent failed to score in 7 of Fakel’s last 9 league matches.
• The team has secured victory in all 7 of their previous home matches in the FNL.
• In their last 6 home games in this tournament, the club has maintained a perfect defensive record, not conceding a single goal.

Fakel’s Provisional Lineup (3-4-3)

Daniil Frolkin – Igor Yurganov, Yuri Zhuravlev, Stanislav Magkeev – Nuri Abdokov, Butta Magomedov, Kirill Simonov, Ravil Netfullin – Georgy Gongadze, Ilnur Alshin, Belaidi Poussi.

Arsenal Tula’s Performance

Dmitry Gunko’s charges secured a home victory over SKA-Khabarovsk (3-1) in the previous round. Their only defeat in the current championship was against Volga (they boast 3 wins and 4 draws otherwise). However, the Tula team has conceded in 7 matches in FNL 2025/26, with a total of 9 goals against them – a defensive record worse than only six other rivals. Despite this, Arsenal sits in 7th place overall. Additionally, in their match against Khabarovsk, the team achieved their season-best figures for corners taken, with 14 (averaging 6.5).

Key Arsenal Tula Statistics

• At least three goals were scored in 5 of Arsenal’s last 6 league matches.
• On the road, the Tula side has avoided defeat in 4 of their last 5 FNL away fixtures (3 wins, 1 draw).
• Arsenal has found the back of the net in 7 consecutive away games in this tournament.

Arsenal Tula’s Provisional Lineup (4-5-1)

Mikhail Tsulaya – Kirill Bolshakov, Nikita Karmaev, Erving Botaka-Ioboma, Daniil Penchikov – Nikita Razdorskikh, Igor Gorbunov, Tigran Avanesyan, Edarlin Reyes, Alan Tsaraev – Amur Kalmykov.

Referee Analysis

German Kovalenko (Russia)

Kovalenko’s Match Statistics

Matches officiated – 14 (First League, 2024/25 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 32;

Average yellow cards per match – 2.3;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 25;

Penalties awarded – 0%.

Fakel vs Arsenal Tula Match Prediction

Bookmakers still appear to place their faith in the Voronezh team’s defensive prowess. Igor Shalimov’s men have conceded the fewest goals and boast the highest number of clean sheets – 5. However, a closer look at their defensive record reveals a more nuanced picture. Two of the teams that failed to score against Fakel are currently in the relegation zone, while another pair averages less than a goal per game and sits in the lower half of the table. Only Kostroma’s Spartak has shown good results against them, but that was in Matchday 1, when Fakel might have had a weaker understanding of FNL realities. In their last two league matches, Fakel has conceded 3 goals and allowed opponents to create 10 scoring opportunities near their goal.

Arsenal’s Attacking Threat

The Tula squad is one of only three clubs that have managed to score in every single match of the current championship. Furthermore, their attacking play seems to be gaining momentum with each fixture. Arsenal’s progress in terms of goal-scoring is particularly notable: in Matchdays 6 and 8, Dmitry Gunko’s side scored three goals in each, a feat they never achieved more than twice last season. On the road, the Tula team has consistently found the net in their last 7 First League away encounters. I believe the pressure of the result will not weigh heavily on the visitors, as they are facing one of the league leaders. Therefore, Arsenal is unlikely to deviate from their established playing style, which consistently earns them points.

Final Score Prediction

My prediction: “Arsenal Individual Total Over 0.5” with odds 1.72