Once Caldas — Deportivo Pasto : Match Preview and Prediction for October 02,2025

Once Caldas’ Psychological State

Once Caldas enters this crucial fixture in a state of profound psychological distress. Their elimination from the Copa Sudamericana at the hands of Independiente del Valle was more than just a defeat; it was a devastating setback that laid bare the team’s myriad vulnerabilities. Leading 2-0 after the first leg away, celebrating prematurely on the bus roof before the return fixture, only to then passively lose 0-2 at home and concede on penalties – such an experience leaves an indelible scar on any squad.

Team Morale and Leadership Response

Head coach Hernán Darío Herrera himself admitted that the team became overconfident. Team captain Dayro Moreno publicly apologized to the fans, describing the incident as a complete failure and the worst day of his life. All these factors contribute to a toxic atmosphere, which will undoubtedly impact their performance, particularly in defensive aspects.

Defensive Vulnerabilities Highlighted

Indeed, they did secure a 5-2 victory against Boyacá Chicó following this debacle. However, a closer inspection reveals a critical detail: they conceded two goals against an opponent that is far from formidable. The statistics from that match underscore their defensive fragility: Boyacá Chicó managed 4 shots on target, converting two, and created 2 significant scoring opportunities. Prior to that, they suffered a 1-2 defeat to América de Cali. It’s an undeniable fact that Once Caldas’ defense consistently leaks goals, a vulnerability that cannot be overlooked.

Deportivo Pasto’s Current Turmoil

Now, let’s turn our attention to the visiting side. It’s true that Deportivo Pasto is currently embroiled in utter chaos. The team occupies the bottom spot in the league standings, a coaching change occurred following Camilo Ayala’s departure, and an internal scandal involving player betting allegations is raging within the club. It seemingly couldn’t get any worse.

Recent Scoring Success Against Once Caldas

However, let’s set aside all this internal turmoil and focus solely on the raw footballing facts. Deportivo Pasto has already found the back of the net against Once Caldas in the first leg of this very cup tie, which concluded with a 1-2 scoreline. This indicates they have recently discovered the key to unlock their opponent’s defense.

Head-to-Head Scoring Trends

The history of head-to-head encounters further corroborates this observation. Both teams have scored in 3 of their last 4 meetings. Furthermore, a compelling trend emerges: Once Caldas has conceded against Deportivo Pasto in 15 of their last 20 direct confrontations. When specifically considering matches played at Once Caldas’ home ground, the statistics become even more telling: the visitors have scored in 7 out of 9 instances. This is no longer a mere coincidence; it’s a clear pattern.