La Equidad — Once Caldas : Match Preview and Prediction for October 07,2025

Home Ground Advantage

Let’s analyze the facts. While La Equidad’s overall league standing is dire, occupying the 20th and last position, this general picture becomes secondary when considering a home match against this specific opponent. The head-to-head record on their home turf plays a crucial role here. The statistics are clear: La Equidad has avoided defeat in 8 out of their last 10 home encounters against Once Caldas.

Resilience at Home

Their recent 3-0 loss to Santa Fe occurred away from home, where the team appeared distinctly weak. The opponent dominated, maintaining 66% possession and attempting 20 shots on goal. However, playing on home ground is an entirely different scenario, especially against this particular rival. Despite ongoing performance issues, season statistics highlight their tenacity in duels. For instance, the team ranks second in the league for the percentage of ground duels won.

Defensive Grit Despite Offensive Struggles

La Equidad possesses the league’s weakest attack, having scored only 7 goals in 13 matches. They rank among the lowest in almost all offensive metrics, including shots, chances created, and corners. Yet, La Equidad players lead the league in goal-line clearances. What does this indicate? It points to an extraordinary commitment to defense during critical moments. This paints a picture of a team that will fight for every ball on their home pitch to avoid defeat.

Away Form Struggles

Once Caldas approaches this match following two significant victories, yet both were secured on their home ground. The situation is starkly different when they play away. The away form league table confirms this, showing the team in a mere 14th place with only one win from six away fixtures. The trend is even more telling: Once Caldas has failed to win in 12 of their last 16 away matches.

Impact of Copa Sudamericana Exit

A crucial factor is the team’s psychological state following their painful elimination from the Copa Sudamericana. Their captain and top scorer, 40-year-old Dayro Moreno, publicly admitted to being severely emotionally affected. He stated he was “very depressed for six days” and even “told the coach he wasn’t ready to play.” Such a state from a key leader is bound to impact the entire squad, especially in a challenging away fixture.

Misleading Home Wins

Their recent thrashings of Deportivo Pasto (4-0) and Boyaca Chico (5-2) should not be misleading. These were home games against teams from the lower half of the table. Their last away league match, however, resulted in a 1-2 defeat against America de Cali. This scoreline offers a more realistic assessment of their strength on the road.