Match Overview

The third-round fixture of the 2025/26 UEFA group stage will see Sporting CP from Portugal host Olympique Marseille from France. This highly anticipated encounter is scheduled for October 22 at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon. We delve into a comprehensive match prediction, betting insights, current odds, and relevant statistics for Sporting CP versus Marseille.

Sporting CP Analysis

Current Form and Standings

Sporting CP’s initial outings have yielded mixed fortunes. Their campaign began with a convincing victory over Kairat, but a subsequent away fixture against Napoli proved challenging, resulting in a narrow 1:2 defeat for the Portuguese squad. Accumulating 3 points thus far, the club currently sits in 14th position in the overall group standings. A notable concern for Sporting is their struggle to find the net, having scored more than one goal in only one of their last eight matches, with just a single win recorded in that period.

Key Sporting Statistics

• Sporting CP has conceded a goal in each of their last five home fixtures.
• Both teams have found the back of the net in seven of Sporting’s previous nine appearances in this tournament.
• The Portuguese side has managed to cover a +1.5 handicap in six of their last seven encounters.

Sporting CP Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Rui Silva – Iván Fresneda, Eduardo Quaresma, Ousmane Diomande, Maximiliano Araújo – Morten Hjulmand, Hidemasa Morita – Pedro Gonçalves, Geovany Kenda, Francisco Trincão – Luis Suárez.

Team News: Sporting CP

Midfielder Daniel Bragança and forward Nuno Santos are currently on the road to recovery from their respective injuries.

Marseille Analysis

Current Form and Standings

Olympique Marseille’s recent performances mirror those of Sporting CP, albeit with a different sequence of results. Marseille initially endured a frustrating loss to Real Madrid, but subsequently bounced back with a significant victory over Ajax. Their last fixture marked their first clean sheet in six matches. Roberto De Zerbi’s side has also accumulated 3 points; however, their superior goal difference places them slightly higher, at 12th in the league table.

Key Marseille Statistics

• Marseille’s streak of decisive matches, with no draws, now stands at 28 games (comprising 7 wins and 21 losses).
• In seven of the French club’s last nine away matches in this European tournament, at least one team has failed to score.
• Marseille has conceded goals in 13 of their last 14 away fixtures.

Marseille Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Gerónimo Rulli – Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, Leonardo Balerdi, Emerson Palmieri – Matt O’Riley, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Angel Gomes, Igor Paixão – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

Team News: Marseille

Key defender Facundo Medina is sidelined due to an injury. The availability of midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia and Amad Traoré, alongside forward Amine Gouiri, is still uncertain for the upcoming match.

Match Official

Referee Profile

Rade Obrenović (Slovenia)

Referee Statistics (2025/26 International Matches)

• Matches officiated: 7
• Total yellow cards issued (including second bookings): 36
• Average yellow cards per match: 5.1
• Red cards issued: 0
• Average fouls called per match: 26
• Penalties awarded: 0%

Sporting CP vs Marseille Match Prediction

Shared Fortunes and Goal-Rich Encounters

Both Sporting CP and Marseille enter this fixture with identical records from their opening two matches – one victory and one defeat. This symmetry extends to their scoring patterns, as all their initial group stage games have been high-scoring affairs, regardless of the final outcome. For Sporting, an impressive 17 out of their last 18 matches have seen at least two goals scored. This trend of high-scoring games is particularly pronounced in their home fixtures, with the same threshold being surpassed in 15 consecutive European home ties. Notably, Sporting has only been defeated twice in their last six home outings, with those losses coming against formidable opponents like Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund.

Marseille’s Away Form and Goal Tendencies

Marseille boasts a long-standing streak without a draw in the , yet their overall record presents a challenging picture: a staggering 20 of their last 25 matches in the competition have resulted in defeat. Interestingly, four of their five rare successes during this period occurred on home turf. When playing away, the French side has managed to avoid defeat in just one of their last 13 fixtures. Furthermore, 11 of these 13 away games also featured a minimum of two goals, highlighting a propensity for open, high-scoring contests.

Our Final Prediction

Our prediction for this match is a “1X (Sporting CP win or draw) and Total Goals Over 1.5” outcome, with odds of 1.70.