Match Overview: PSV vs Napoli

The third-round match of the 2025/26 general stage between PSV (Netherlands) and Napoli (Italy) is scheduled for October 21st at the Philips Stadium in Eindhoven. This forecast provides an in-depth analysis, including predictions and key statistics for the PSV vs Napoli clash.

PSV Performance Analysis

PSV’s Champions League Journey So Far

Peter Bos’s side began their campaign with a home defeat against tournament newcomers Union SG (Belgium) with a 1-3 scoreline. However, PSV partially redeemed themselves in the second round by sharing points with Bayer Leverkusen on their home turf in a 1-1 draw. Nevertheless, the club has failed to win in 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches (2 draws, 3 losses) and has not kept a clean sheet in ten consecutive fixtures. With just one point, the team currently sits in 27th place in the standings. It’s also worth noting that PSV has avoided defeat in 9 of their last 12 home matches against Italian clubs in European competitions (7 wins, 2 draws).

Key PSV Statistics

• The club has remained unbeaten in 11 of their last 13 home Champions League matches (7 wins, 4 draws).
• At least four goals have been scored in 5 of the team’s last 6 home European fixtures.
• PSV has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 11 home Champions League encounters.

PSV Predicted Starting Lineup (4-3-3)

Matej Kovar – Anass Salah-Eddine, Ryan Flamingo, Jarek Gasiorowski, Mauro Junior – Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari – Ivan Perisic, Guus Til, Dennis Man.

PSV Team News and Injuries

Defenders Wessel Kooy and Kiliann Sildillia, along with forward Ruben van Bommel, are sidelined due to injuries.

Napoli Performance Analysis

Napoli’s Form in the Champions League

Antonio Conte’s men secured their first victory in the current Champions League campaign in the last round, defeating Sporting CP 2-1 at home. This marked only Napoli’s second win in their last seven Champions League fixtures (2 draws, 3 losses). It’s also worth noting that in 10 of their previous 12 matches in this tournament, the Neapolitans have failed to keep a clean sheet. With three points, the team currently occupies the 19th position in the league table.

Key Napoli Statistics

• The club’s away record in the Champions League shows an uncompromising streak of 11 matches (5 wins, 6 losses).
• The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away European matches.
• Napoli has conceded in 7 of their previous 9 away Champions League encounters.

Napoli Predicted Starting Lineup (4-5-1)

Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Juan Jesus, Sam Bekkema, Mathías Olivera – Leonardo Spinazzola, Billy Gilmour, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Kevin De Bruyne, David Neres – Lorenzo Lucca.

Napoli Team News and Injuries

Defender Amir Rrahmani, midfielder Stanislav Lobotka, and forwards Rasmus Hojlund and Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries. Additionally, the participation of midfielder Scott McTominay is doubtful.

Match Referee Profile

Daniel Siebert (Switzerland)

Daniel Siebert’s Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 15 (International fixtures, 2024/25-2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 74;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;

Red cards shown – 6;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 13%.

Match Prediction: PSV vs Napoli

PSV’s Offensive Approach at Home

At home, the Dutch side consistently aims to play an attacking style of football, regardless of their opponent’s caliber. PSV’s open play frequently leads to goals: in their last 13 home Champions League matches, the club has never failed to score. Furthermore, in seven of these fixtures, they have netted at least twice. However, PSV’s defense is not always reliable: in 13 of their last 15 home European matches, they have failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding 10 goals in their last two Champions League home games.

Napoli’s Attacking Philosophy and Defensive Concerns

Napoli also prefers an attacking approach and dedicates significant effort to creating chances, rarely opting for a defensive stance. In their last 13 away Champions League fixtures, Napoli players have only failed to score in three matches, and in six of those encounters, the team managed to put at least two goals past their opponents. Concurrently, the Italian side often struggles with defensive lapses: over the same period, the Neapolitans kept a clean sheet only three times, and they conceded a total of nine goals in their last three away Champions League games.

Final Betting Tip

I anticipate this will be a high-scoring encounter. Therefore, my prediction is “Total Over 2.5 Goals”.