Match Overview

The second-round fixture of the 2025/26 group stage will feature AS Monaco (France) against Manchester City (England). This highly anticipated match is scheduled for October 1st at the Stade Louis II in Fontvieille. Here’s a comprehensive prediction for Monaco vs Manchester City, including betting tips, odds, and statistics.

AS Monaco Team Analysis

Recent Champions League Form

In their previous Champions League outing, AS Monaco suffered a significant defeat, conceding four goals to Club Brugge. A 91st-minute consolation goal prevented a clean sheet loss, but the overall result remains highly disappointing. Following the first round, the club currently sits 33rd in the overall group stage standings. The Monegasques have failed to secure a win in 6 of their last 7 Champions League matches, with 5 of these encounters ending in defeat. 

Key Statistics for Monaco

• AS Monaco has found the net in 11 of their last 14 Champions League matches in regular time.
• The team has covered the (+1.5) handicap in 8 consecutive home matches in this tournament.
• The club has conceded at least one goal in 17 of their last 18 Champions League home fixtures.

Predicted Monaco Lineup (3-5-2)

Philipp Köhn – Thilo Kehrer, Eric Dier, Christian Mavissa Elebi – Vanderson, Jordan Teze, Mamadou Coulibaly, Takumi Minamino, Caio Henrique – Folarin Balogun, Mika Bireth. 

Monaco Injury Update

Goalkeeper Lukáš Hrádecký, along with midfielders Aleksandr Golovin and Denis Zakaria, are currently on the injury list. The participation of midfielders Maghnes Akliouche, Aladji Bamba, and Lamine Camara is uncertain.

Manchester City Team Analysis

City’s Champions League Opener

The English side kicked off their Champions League journey with a confident 2-0 victory over Napoli. Playing with a numerical advantage for approximately 70 minutes, the team allowed only one shot towards their goal while registering 23 shots themselves. The result was convincing, but overall, the club has won just 2 of their last 8 Champions League matches (1 draw, 5 losses). Notably, Pep Guardiola’s squad kept a clean sheet for the first time in 8 European fixtures. 

Key Statistics for Manchester City

• Both teams have scored in 6 of Manchester City’s last 8 Champions League matches.
• The club’s scoring streak in this tournament extends to 5 games.
• The English giants have not secured a victory in 5 of their last 6 away Champions League matches (1 draw, 4 losses).

Predicted Manchester City Lineup (4-3-3)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Rúben Dias, Nathan Aké, Matheus Nunes, Nico O’Reilly – Tijani Reijnders, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden – Sávio, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland. 

Manchester City Injury Update

Defenders Abdukodir Khusanov and Rayan Aït-Nouri, as well as forwards Omar Marmoush and Rayan Cherki, are sidelined due to injuries. Rodri’s availability for the match is questionable.

Match Official Profile

Referee Jesús Gil’s Overview

Jesús Gil (Spain)

Referee’s Performance Statistics

Matches officiated – 9 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 37;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 33%.

Match Prediction: AS Monaco vs Manchester City

Analyzing Offensive and Defensive Trends

Just a couple of weeks ago, Monaco conceded 4 goals against Club Brugge, and this is far from an isolated incident of the team suffering significant defensive lapses. They have let in at least 3 goals in 5 of their last 7 Champions League encounters. At the same time, the Monegasques rarely allow opponents to keep a clean sheet, which often turns their matches into high-scoring affairs with little regard for defensive solidity. At least 3 goals have been scored in 9 of Monaco’s last 12 Champions League games. 

Manchester City’s High-Scoring Away Record

Manchester City also tends to deliver entertaining, high-scoring matches, regardless of the final outcome. The 3-goal mark has been surpassed in 8 of the club’s last 10 Champions League fixtures. When considering only away matches, at least 3 goals were scored in 9 of their previous 10 games, with 9 of these matches seeing a minimum of 4 goals. 

Final Prediction

In my opinion, all indicators point towards a high-scoring encounter between these two teams. My prediction is “Total Goals Over 2.5” for an odds of 1.52.