Match Overview
The 2025/26 Group Stage Matchday 2 fixture between French side Olympique Marseille and Dutch club Ajax will take place on September 30th at the Stade Vélodrome. This preview delves into the Marseille vs Ajax prediction, examining key statistics, betting odds, and potential outcomes.
Marseille’s Form and Performance
In the previous Champions League round, Marseille put up a strong fight against Real Madrid. The French side opened the scoring midway through the first half but ultimately conceded a decisive goal shortly before the final whistle, leading to a defeat. This extended Marseille’s streak of not keeping a clean sheet in regular time to five consecutive matches in this European competition, with four of those five games ending in losses. The club’s uncompromising run in the Champions League now stands at 27 matches (6 wins, 21 defeats). In terms of their current tournament standing, Marseille occupies the 25th position in the overall group stage table.
Key Statistics for Marseille
- Both teams have scored in regulation time in 5 of Marseille’s last 7 Champions League matches.
- The French team has covered a +1.5 handicap in 90 minutes in their last 8 matches in this tournament.
- The club has conceded at least one goal in regular time in their last 11 Champions League encounters.
Marseille’s Predicted Lineup
Geronimo Rulli – Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, Leonardo Balerdi, Facundo Medina – Matt O’Riley, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Angel Gomes, Timothy Weah – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Marseille Injury Report
Midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia and Amad Traoré are currently injured.
Ajax’s Recent Performance
The start of the European season proved challenging for Ajax. They were unable to contain Inter Milan, losing to a clean sheet after conceding two goals from set-pieces. This defeat marked their fifth loss in their last six Champions League outings. The team has now conceded in six consecutive matches in this competition, with at least two goals conceded in five of those six encounters. In the overall group stage standings, the club sits in 31st place.
Key Statistics for Ajax
- Ajax has scored in regulation time in 12 of their last 15 Champions League matches.
- The Amsterdam club’s uncompromising streak in this tournament spans 8 games (2 wins, 6 losses).
- Both teams have scored in regular time in Ajax’s last 7 away matches in the Champions League.
Ajax’s Predicted Lineup
Vítězslav Jaroš – Anton Gaaei, Ko Itakura, Youri Baas, Owen Wijndal – Davy Klaassen, Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh – Oliver Edvardsen, Mika Godts, Wout Weghorst.
Ajax Injury Report
Midfielders Branco van den Boomen and James McConnell are unavailable due to injuries. Forward Kasper Dolberg’s participation is also doubtful for the same reason.
Match Prediction and Betting Tip
Both competing teams have shown a lack of consistency in their results, yet matches involving them frequently deliver a high volume of goals. For instance, while Marseille secured a victory in regulation time in only 3 of their last 7 Champions League encounters, at least 3 goals were scored in 5 of those 7 matches. The same benchmark of 3 goals or more was met in 8 of the French club’s last 10 home games in this European competition.
Goal-Scoring Trends
Analyzing Ajax’s statistics reveals an even more pronounced trend. A minimum of 3 goals were scored in 6 of the Amsterdam side’s last 7 Champions League matches. Moreover, when Ajax plays away from home, it almost guarantees an entertaining spectacle. Their last 7 Champions League away fixtures have all featured at least 3 goals, with 5 of those 7 matches seeing 4 or more goals scored.
Our Betting Recommendation
My prediction for this match is
“Total Goals Over 2.5”, with odds currently at
1.59
Mark Thompson
