Match Preview

The second-round match of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between “Kairat” (Kazakhstan) and “Real Madrid” (Spain) will take place on September 30 at the “Central” stadium in Almaty. This article provides a unique forecast, betting tips, coefficients, and statistics for the Kairat vs Real Madrid encounter.

Kairat Team Overview

Rafael Urazbakhtin’s squad suffered a 1:4 away defeat to Sporting in the previous round. Despite the clear advantage of their opponent, the Kazakhstani team held strong for a long time, but Kairat conceded three goals within 3 minutes in the middle of the second half. Towards the end of the match, the club managed to score a consolation goal, breaking a 3-match Champions League streak without finding the net. It’s worth noting that the team has not won in their last 4 Champions League matches (2 draws, 2 losses).

Kairat’s Recent Champions League Performance

• The Kazakhstani side has conceded no more than one goal in 7 of their last 9 matches in this tournament.
• At home in the Champions League, Kairat is unbeaten in their last 6 matches (5 wins, 1 draw).
• The team has scored in 5 of their last 6 home Champions League fixtures.

Kairat’s Provisional Lineup

Sherkhan Kalmyrza – Alexander Martynovich, Egor Sorokin, Alexander Mrynsky, Erkin Tapalov – Valery Gromyko, Ofri Arad, Luis Mata – Edmilson Filho, Jorginho Costa, Dastan Satpayev.

Kairat Team News

Goalkeepers Alexander Zarutsky and Temirlan Anarbekov, as well as midfielder Giorgi Zaria, are injured.

Real Madrid Team Overview

Kylian Mbappé’s brace against Marseille secured a 2:1 victory for the Spanish giants, marking Real Madrid’s 200th win in the Champions League – a record achieved by no other club. Interestingly, the previous Champions League campaign saw the team conclude with a series of three defeats. It’s crucial to note that the club has conceded in their last 7 Champions League matches. However, Real’s attack compensates for their defensive issues, as they were also the first to reach the 700-goal mark in Europe’s most prestigious club competition.

Real Madrid’s Champions League Statistics

• Both teams scored in 5 of Real Madrid’s last 7 Champions League matches.
• Away from home, the team has not drawn in their last 8 Champions League games (4 wins, 4 losses).
• The club conceded first in 5 of their last 7 away matches in this tournament.

Real Madrid’s Provisional Lineup

Thibaut Courtois – Alvaro Carreras, Dean Huijsen, Dani Carvajal, Fran Garcia – Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Franco Mastantuono, Vinicius Junior – Kylian Mbappé.

Real Madrid Team News

Defenders Antonio Rüdiger, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Éder Militão, and Ferland Mendy will miss the game due to injuries.

Referee Analysis

Marco Guida (Italy)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 9 (International matches, 2024/25-2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 33;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 24;

Penalties awarded – 11%.

Kairat vs Real Madrid Match Prediction

There’s immense excitement surrounding this match in Kazakhstan. Kairat has never faced a team of this caliber in their history. The home crowd’s support will be tremendous, but that’s perhaps the only significant advantage Rafael Urazbakhtin’s side can offer their opponents. The difference in class is simply too vast. Nevertheless, I believe the Kazakhstani team is capable of scoring a goal to delight their fans. While all 6 of Kairat’s previous home Champions League matches were in the qualifying stages, the club managed to score in 5 of them. The defense of their upcoming opponent, Real Madrid, has shown vulnerabilities.

Real Madrid’s Defensive Issues

Despite having star defenders, Real Madrid has conceded in 14 of their last 15 Champions League matches. In the previous tournament edition, Real kept only one clean sheet, and only 4 of the 36 participants in the main stage failed to register a single “dry” match. It’s clear that the Spanish team relies on its attack, but defensively, a team of their stature should be more solid. One reason might be the frequent injuries to defenders, which hasn’t been avoided for the upcoming game either. It’s worth adding that Xabi Alonso’s side conceded 5 goals in the last La Liga round.

Final Verdict

There’s no pressure of expectation on the Kazakhstani team, and even scoring a single goal would be a significant achievement. My prediction: “Kairat Individual Total Over 0.5” with odds of 2.25

Author

Alexey Tarabrin