Match Overview

The UEFA 2025/26 Group Stage continues with Matchday 2, featuring a clash between Chelsea (England) and Benfica (Portugal). This exciting encounter is set to take place on September 30 at Stamford Bridge in London. Our in-depth analysis covers the prediction, odds, and statistics for the Chelsea – Benfica fixture.

Chelsea’s Current Form

The London side began their campaign with an away defeat to Bayern Munich (1:3). This result marks their fourth loss in their last five matches, with only one victory during this period. Historically, this is the first time the English club has suffered three consecutive defeats in the UCL. Notably, Chelsea failed to score in three of these recent matches. Furthermore, the Blues have kept a clean sheet in only one of their previous seven European outings.

Key Statistics for Chelsea

• Fewer than four goals were scored in 10 of Chelsea’s last 11 matches in this tournament.
• At home, the team has remained unbeaten in 9 of their last 11 fixtures (8 wins, 1 draw).
• Chelsea conceded no more than one goal in 14 of their last 16 home matches in the UCL.

Chelsea’s Expected Lineup (4-3-3)

Robert Sanchez – Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Jorrel Hato, Marc Cucurella – Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez, Joao Pedro Jesus – Pedro Neto, Jamie Gittens, Alejandro Garnacho.

The team’s injured list includes defenders Wesley Fofana, Tosin Adarabioyo, Levi Colwill, midfielders Cole Palmer, Dariu Essugu, and forward Liam Delap.

Benfica’s Recent Performance

Benfica’s opening match against Qarabag seemed straightforward initially, as they took a two-goal lead. However, the Portuguese side couldn’t maintain their advantage, ultimately losing 2:3. This defeat is their first in five matches (3 wins, 1 draw). It also ended their four-game clean sheet streak in the competition. Despite this, Benfica has managed to score in 5 of their last 6 fixtures.

Following their first-round loss, there have been changes in the coaching staff, with Jose Mourinho appointed as the new head coach.

Key Statistics for Benfica

• At least one team failed to score in 5 of Benfica’s last 7 matches.
• Away from home in this tournament, the team has been unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 matches (4 wins, 1 draw).
• Benfica kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 away encounters.

Benfica’s Expected Lineup (4-3-3)

Anatoliy Trubin – Antonio Silva, Samuel Dahl, Nicolas Otamendi, Tomas Araujo – Richard Rios, Enzo Barrenechea, Georgiy Sudakov – Fredrik Aursnes, Evangelos Pavlidis, Andreas Schjelderup.

Defender Alexander Bah, midfielder Manu Silva, and forward Bruma are currently sidelined due to injury.

Referee Analysis

Daniel Siebert (Germany)

Matches officiated – 16 (International matches, 2024/25-2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 77;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.8;

Red cards shown – 5;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 13%.

Match Prediction: Chelsea vs Benfica

Although the Londoners failed to secure points in their first-round match, their opponent was quite challenging. Chelsea’s upcoming rival appears to be a more manageable task, especially as they will play this fixture at home. In their last 11 home matches, Chelsea has recorded 8 wins, 1 draw, and only 2 losses. Notably, both defeats in this period came against Real Madrid, a team whose caliber is significantly higher than Benfica’s.

Jose Mourinho makes a return to Stamford Bridge as the coach of the Portuguese club. He took charge after being dismissed from Fenerbahce, precisely due to their elimination in the qualifying round against Benfica. It is uncertain whether this managerial change will bring an immediate positive effect, especially after Benfica’s surprising result in the first round. If Benfica struggles against Qarabag at home, their chances away against a strong opponent like Chelsea are even slimmer.

My prediction is: Chelsea to Win with odds of 1.60

Author: Alexey Tarabrin