Match Overview

The third group stage fixture of the 2025/26 will see Chelsea (England) face Ajax (Netherlands) on October 22nd at Stamford Bridge in London. This preview provides a comprehensive prediction, potential betting angles, current odds, and crucial statistics for the Chelsea vs Ajax encounter.

Chelsea Team Overview

Current Form & Champions League Performance

Chelsea’s initial Champions League fixture proved to be an unfortunate one. In mid-September, the London squad suffered a defeat to Bayern Munich, marking their third consecutive loss in this prestigious European competition. Nevertheless, two weeks later, Chelsea managed to snap this unwelcome streak with a hard-fought 1-0 triumph over Benfica. For the fourth successive Champions League match, the English club failed to score more than a single goal, but even one strike was enough for Enzo Maresca’s side to climb to 18th position in the tournament’s current overall standings.

Chelsea’s Home Record & Stats

• Chelsea has remained unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 home Champions League encounters (4 wins, 1 draw).
• At least one team did not manage to score in 11 of the previous 14 home games for the Londoners in this competition.
• The club’s domestic uncompromising streak in the Champions League stands at 5 matches (4 wins, 1 loss).

Predicted Chelsea Starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Robert Sanchez – Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Jorrel Hato, Marc Cucurella – Reece James, Moises Caicedo – Pedro Neto, Facundo Buonanotte, Alejandro Garnacho – Tyrique George.

Chelsea Team News & Injuries

Forward Joao Pedro is currently serving a suspension. Due to various injuries, defenders Benoit Badiashile, Wesley Fofana, Levi Colwill, midfielder Cole Palmer, and forward Liam Delap are all unavailable for the upcoming match. Midfielder Enzo Fernandez’s participation is also considered doubtful.

Ajax Team Overview

Current Form & Champions League Struggles

John Heitinga’s squad is among the select few teams that have yet to secure a single point in the current Champions League season. Ajax has suffered defeats against Inter and Marseille, failing to score even once in either match. Besides the Amsterdam club, only Olympiacos has not yet found the net in this European competition. Furthermore, the club has conceded a total of 6 goals, with only Kairat having a worse defensive record (9 goals conceded). Their penultimate position in the overall standings appears entirely justifiable. Overall, Ajax has experienced 6 losses in their last 7 Champions League fixtures.

Ajax’s Champions League Statistics

• A minimum of 2 goals have been scored in 8 of Ajax’s last 8 Champions League matches.
• The team’s uncompromising streak in this tournament spans 9 games (2 wins, 7 losses).
• Both teams found the net in 7 of Ajax’s previous 8 away matches in the Champions League.

Predicted Ajax Starting XI (4-3-3)

Vitezslav Jaros – Anton Gaaei, Ko Itakura, Youri Baas, Lucas Rosa – Davy Klaassen, Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh – Oliver Edvardsen, Mika Godts, Wout Weghorst.

Ajax Team News & Injuries

Defender Owen Wijndal, midfielder Branco van den Boomen, and forward Kasper Dolberg will not be available for the team due to injuries. The participation of forwards Steven Berghuis and Don-Angelo Konadu is currently questionable.

Match Official

Referee Profile: Felix Zwayer (Germany)

Felix Zwayer (Germany)

Matches officiated – 20 (International matches, 2024/25 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 98;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;

Red cards shown – 9;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties awarded – 35%.

Match Prediction: Chelsea vs Ajax

Chelsea’s Potential Challenges

Many anticipate a confident victory for Chelsea, yet it’s not a certainty that Enzo Maresca’s side will sail through without facing any difficulties. The English club has, in fact, secured wins in only 2 of their last 6 Champions League matches. In both successful outings, they overcame their opponents by a margin of just one or two goals. Chelsea hasn’t recorded a significant victory (by a large margin) in the Champions League across their last 9 consecutive games, scoring a maximum of two goals in each of those fixtures. Even when considering only home matches, Chelsea has defeated an opponent by a margin of three or more goals in only 1 of their last 8 European ties.

Ajax’s Resilience Away from Home

Ajax faltered in their most recent Champions League fixture against Marseille; however, such comprehensive defeats are not a frequent occurrence for them. Over their previous 52 matches in this tournament, the club has suffered only 3 heavy defeats, and even losing by a two-goal margin has been relatively rare for the Amsterdam team. On away grounds, prior to their recent match against Marseille, Ajax consistently avoided heavy losses for 25 consecutive Champions League matches.

Final Forecast

Based on the facts presented, the prediction is – “Ajax with a handicap of (+2.5)”.