Match Overview

The 3rd round match of the 2025/26 group stage between Athletic (Spain) and Qarabag (Azerbaijan) will take place on October 22 at San Mamés stadium in Bilbao. Here’s a detailed forecast, betting tips, coefficients, and statistics for the Athletic vs Qarabag encounter.

Athletic Bilbao Team Analysis

Ernesto Valverde’s squad has suffered two consecutive defeats in the opening rounds, losing to Arsenal (0:2) and Borussia Dortmund (1:4). This extends the team’s European losing streak to four matches, a first in their history. During this period, the Basque side conceded 13 goals. However, the Spanish team also regularly finds the net, scoring in 21 of their last 22 international fixtures. In the tournament standings, the club occupies 34th place and is also among the five worst teams in terms of offensive output.

• At home, the team has won 6 of their last 8 European matches (2 losses).
• The Spaniards opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home international matches.
• At their home ground, Athletic has not conceded more than one goal in 6 of their last 8 European fixtures.

Athletic Bilbao Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Unai Simón – Yuri Berchiche, Daniel Vivian, Aymeric Laporte, Jesús Areso – Unai Gómez, Mikel Jauregizar, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Robert Navarro, Gorka Guruzeta, Iñaki Williams.

Midfielder Beñat Prados will miss the match due to injury.

Qarabag Team Analysis

The Azerbaijani side has maintained a perfect record so far. After defeating Benfica away (3:2), the team secured a home victory against Copenhagen (2:0). Notably, Gurban Gurbanov’s team kept a clean sheet for the first time in their last 5 Champions League matches. Despite these defensive statistics, Qarabag has been performing excellently, winning 7 of their last 8 matches in this tournament (1 loss). Moreover, in 5 of these matches, the Agdam team scored at least two goals. In the tournament standings, the Azerbaijanis are currently in 6th place.

• At least one goal was scored in both halves in Qarabag’s last 5 Champions League games.
• The team has not drawn in 13 consecutive away matches in this tournament (8 wins, 5 losses).
• At least three goals were scored in 5 of the club’s last 6 away matches in the Champions League.

Qarabag Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)

Mateusz Kochalski – Bahlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Matheus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicallio, Emmanuel Addai – Camilo Durán.

Referee Profile

Igor Pajac (Croatia)

Matches officiated – 5 (International matches, 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 17;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 23;

Penalties awarded – 20%.

Match Prediction and Betting Tip

Qarabag was considered an underdog even in their home game against Copenhagen. However, Gurban Gurbanov’s team defied expectations, securing their second consecutive victory in the group stage. Bookmakers continue to underestimate Qarabag, offering attractive odds even for a single goal from the team. Meanwhile, the club boasts an 8-match scoring streak in the Champions League, finding the net at least twice in 6 of those fixtures.

Conversely, the Basque side has not demonstrated reliable defensive play. In the current Champions League campaign, the team has already conceded 6 goals, and at home, Athletic has failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 international matches. Overall this season, the Spanish team has only managed two clean sheets in 12 official games. It remains unclear how Ernesto Valverde’s squad, with such defensive vulnerabilities, plans to contain the attack of their upcoming opponent.

My prediction: Qarabag Total Goals Over 0.5.